MLB · resolved market
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd32bc223b69a91276ac0defb75d964ee2669890486b2d15c17cf779c0c81121b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,576
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,617
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,576 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xda48…5926backed Over | 51c | 685.64$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.33 | 123 | 39%48 W · 75 L | -9.7wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 54c | 399$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.46 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Under | 46c | 394.18$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.86 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Under | 41c | 350.8$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.78 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 50c | 310.21$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.19 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Under | 53c | 301$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.63 | 794 | 42.4%337 W · 457 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 55c | 299.85$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.7 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 50c | 291.5$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.46 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 59c | 261.02$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.35 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 26c | 233.89$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.81 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 44c | 228.57$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.57 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…023abacked Under | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 159 | 54.7%87 W · 72 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1839…3ad3backed Under | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 52c | 157.78$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.48 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf874…def4backed Over | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 296 | 56.1%166 W · 130 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 49c | 130.29$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.13 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 76c | 118$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.68 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Under | 64c | 89.3$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.3 | 439 | 54.7%240 W · 199 L | +30.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 52c | 75.83$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.79 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Over | 29c | 72$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Under | 46c | 64$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.56 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Under | 66c | 60.35$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.52 | 295 | 49.8%147 W · 148 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bda…8254backed Under | 73c | 59$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 89 | 66.3%59 W · 30 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Under | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…6764backed Over | 43c | 44.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 264 | 38.3%101 W · 163 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Under | 47c | 42.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.42 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Under | 26c | 41.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.41 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Under | 65c | 32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 59c | 31.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf67d…2de1backed Over | 41c | 31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46b1…428cbacked Over | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 191 | 63.4%121 W · 70 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Over | 42c | 26.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 705 | 46.8%330 W · 375 L | -13.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8263…e0f1backed Over | 52c | 19.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 347 | 54.8%190 W · 157 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd431…a3cabacked Under | 58c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x786f…1dcdbacked Under | 56c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5this page
- New York Yankees vs. Detroit TigersNew York Yankees won
- New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 4.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 5.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 6.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-3.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)Detroit Tigers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.