Bundesliga · resolved market
Holstein Kiel vs. SV 07 Elversberg: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x38002c5402789a53da86526cf0de11dcc8a8069e749ed7d0a3fb9ccc38de5755
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,863
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,505
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,863 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 35c | 4,521$1,561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,561.03 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x219e…14d9backed Over | 80c | 3,124$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$624.89 | 134 | 61.9%83 W · 51 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 20c | 2,971$592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$591.88 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…3335backed Over | 80c | 1,073$858 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.5 | 63 | 66.7%42 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Over | 72c | 967.99$696 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.36 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc1b…3b5bbacked Under | 10c | 956.91$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.67 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x649a…02afbacked Over | 72c | 699.98$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.05 | 47 | 85.1%40 W · 7 L | +5.6wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Over | 47c | 651.99$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.7 | 77 | 22.1%17 W · 60 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 21c | 579.4$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 45c | 365.76$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.19 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 79c | 326.58$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.58 | 78 | 67.9%53 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f2…d72dbacked Under | 23c | 304.35$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x368c…9f72backed Over | 46c | 300$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd265…a7ecbacked Under | 9c | 271.02$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 54c | 236.58$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.75 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Over | 60c | 230$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.1 | 225 | 62.2%140 W · 85 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b4f…75f2backed Over | 80c | 228.35$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.67 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.22per pick | 62cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 49c | 224.49$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.49 | 264 | 33.3%88 W · 176 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…49f8backed Over | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 221 | 57%126 W · 95 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc91…0fdbbacked Over | 80c | 187.5$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 209 | 57.4%120 W · 89 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 32c | 170.44$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.35 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…0d1abacked Over | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.29 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x677f…1c6ebacked Under | 9c | 134.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 58c | 130.11$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.11 | 253 | 52.2%132 W · 121 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 21c | 125$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 481 | 46.4%223 W · 258 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 21c | 125$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 21c | 125$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 496 | 47.4%235 W · 261 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Over | 80c | 123.38$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.73 | 183 | 53%97 W · 86 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4157…04f9backed Over | 47c | 121.28$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.28 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbec3…760ebacked Over | 53c | 110$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.2 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +3.5wins | +0.12per pick | 65cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc770…d7d8backed Under | 55c | 103.95$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.78 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e6…d96bbacked Over | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 82 | 43.9%36 W · 46 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee26…9dcabacked Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +3.7wins | +0.20per pick | 41cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd235…6eebbacked Over | 48c | 81.25$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.25 | 119 | 43.7%52 W · 67 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc2b0…e756backed Over | 46c | 69.98$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.09 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +4.6wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8490…3243backed Over | 80c | 54.4$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 27 | 85.2%23 W · 4 L | +4.3wins | +0.16per pick | 69cpaid | +24%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfa03…45e9backed Under | 31c | 47.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Over | 41c | 33.94$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.14 | 109 | 43.1%47 W · 62 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc758…8574backed Over | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 129 | 51.2%66 W · 63 L | +12.1wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc770…8dbbbacked Over | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 108 | 64.8%70 W · 38 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c78…e29bbacked Over | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20c…bf55backed Over | 80c | 19.79$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7960…fe2abacked Over | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -4.1wins | -0.41per pick | 71cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Holstein Kiel vs. SV 07 Elversberg: O/U 1.5this page
- Holstein Kiel vs. SV 07 Elversberg: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Holstein Kiel vs. SV 07 Elversberg: O/U 2.5Under won
- Holstein Kiel vs. SV 07 Elversberg: O/U 3.5Under won
- Holstein Kiel vs. SV 07 Elversberg: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Holstein Kiel (-1.5)SV 07 Elversberg won
- Spread: SV 07 Elversberg (-1.5)Holstein Kiel won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.