Bundesliga · resolved market
Holstein Kiel vs. SV 07 Elversberg: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x37e06fc1afe40d8d0aa066321fee353e6f7a34f0dbb534a005a2b52855e6208c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,749
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,829
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,749 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 50c | 30,233$15,024 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,209.55 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 55c | 13,400$7,370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,369.97 | 137 | 54%74 W · 63 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8566…c626backed Over | 50c | 10,000$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 44c | 4,279$1,883 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,395.3 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad5c…664abacked Over | 57c | 3,534$2,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,002.37 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 55c | 3,270$1,798 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,798.35 | 332 | 44.6%148 W · 184 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 44c | 2,260$986 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,273.78 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Over | 19c | 1,749$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.32 | 77 | 22.1%17 W · 60 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x219e…14d9backed Over | 57c | 1,400$798 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$798 | 134 | 61.9%83 W · 51 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 57c | 1,142$647 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.63 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0def…4ddbbacked Over | 49c | 999.86$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.93 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4157…04f9backed Over | 57c | 870.21$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd239…2083backed Over | 55c | 454.55$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 30c | 373$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.9 | 116 | 30.2%35 W · 81 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 51c | 371.86$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188 | 190 | 55.3%105 W · 85 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x368c…9f72backed Over | 52c | 300$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…f2cdbacked Over | 42c | 300$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 81 | 24.7%20 W · 61 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39fd…5a3fbacked Under | 44c | 270.49$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb5…cabdbacked Over | 56c | 255.55$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.11 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a84…0e54backed Over | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.16per pick | 30cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 41c | 171.96$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 264 | 33.3%88 W · 176 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x084e…71d6backed Over | 51c | 164.49$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.89 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 51c | 163.4$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.91 | 306 | 47.1%144 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5f…7b99backed Under | 43c | 129.99$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.45 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02ea…220cbacked Over | 21c | 119.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6aa…3746backed Over | 21c | 119.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 62c | 108.64$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.58 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…49f8backed Over | 57c | 105.26$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 221 | 57%126 W · 95 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e6…d96bbacked Over | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 82 | 43.9%36 W · 46 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1edf…2392backed Over | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81d9…8bfbbacked Over | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa03…45e9backed Under | 46c | 97$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.3 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 42c | 95.6$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.39 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 253 | 52.2%132 W · 121 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 55c | 92.35$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.56 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdc91…0fdbbacked Over | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 209 | 57.4%120 W · 89 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked Over | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa18f…073fbacked Over | 60c | 82.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 50c | 68.05$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.99 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Over | 57c | 61.4$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1248…8db1backed Over | 55c | 60$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -3.9wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77d5…eacebacked Over | 25c | 59.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb881…20a1backed Over | 60c | 56.67$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Under | 49c | 53.23$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.29 | 120 | 64.2%77 W · 43 L | +10.5wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa439…5802backed Over | 57c | 47.37$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6d…bfc5backed Over | 55c | 47.27$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Under | 58c | 46.71$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.53 | 109 | 43.1%47 W · 62 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20c…bf55backed Under | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb56…efa6backed Under | 44c | 40.41$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c16…c36fbacked Over | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 46c | 39.63$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 215 | 40.9%88 W · 127 L | -15.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 44c | 39$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.74 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7700…2d07backed Over | 40c | 37.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +3.9wins | +0.43per pick | 46cpaid | +96.7%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x03f5…3047backed Over | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 88 | 63.6%56 W · 32 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 43c | 31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.67 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Over | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 225 | 62.2%140 W · 85 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf1…a57bbacked Over | 47c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1a…d5a3backed Under | 60c | 22.94$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.26 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72ee…a848backed Over | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 115 | 56.5%65 W · 50 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Holstein Kiel vs. SV 07 Elversberg: O/U 2.5this page
- Holstein Kiel vs. SV 07 Elversberg: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Holstein Kiel vs. SV 07 Elversberg: O/U 1.5Over won
- Holstein Kiel vs. SV 07 Elversberg: O/U 3.5Under won
- Holstein Kiel vs. SV 07 Elversberg: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Holstein Kiel (-1.5)SV 07 Elversberg won
- Spread: SV 07 Elversberg (-1.5)Holstein Kiel won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.