Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Ferencvárosi TC win on 2025-10-23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x380e7b954467e8682b5f333ce40f5773c184a3791e87f3b94c4d0e1e70f59dad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,396
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,527
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,396 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9cb9…32f2backed No | 69c | 9,600$6,624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,624 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Yes | 31c | 9,000$2,790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,210 | 330 | 55.2%182 W · 148 L | +21.0wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 69c | 2,403$1,658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,658.07 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 31c | 1,249$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$861.81 | 260 | 22.3%58 W · 202 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked No | 32c | 1,000$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9542…4295backed Yes | 31c | 999$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$689.31 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +64.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbed…5194backed Yes | 33c | 994.45$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$669.45 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64b5…7543backed Yes | 31c | 924.51$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$638.64 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +4.6wins | +0.21per pick | 38cpaid | +115.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed No | 43c | 796.34$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.45 | 87 | 55.2%48 W · 39 L | +7.3wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked No | 69c | 776.9$538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$538.31 | 151 | 51%77 W · 74 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a70cbacked Yes | 15c | 682.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$582.14 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03f7…c0ccbacked Yes | 31c | 500$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 57c | 453.1$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.98 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed Yes | 31c | 383.05$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.05 | 80 | 30%24 W · 56 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Yes | 27c | 339.12$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.57 | 78 | 48.7%38 W · 40 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.5 | 147 | 33.3%49 W · 98 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe68a…5e25backed Yes | 31c | 300$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3e2…1026backed Yes | 13c | 284.85$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.82 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad46…65a7backed Yes | 75c | 266.41$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.37 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcef7…e7d7backed No | 9c | 220$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 83 | 45.8%38 W · 45 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ce…7fa9backed Yes | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.67 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…ead9backed Yes | 31c | 156.67$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.59 | 115 | 36.5%42 W · 73 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee7…12c5backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +4.1wins | +0.29per pick | 49cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb5…2a39backed Yes | 71c | 97.99$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.42 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 28c | 80$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 428 | 44.9%192 W · 236 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 72c | 80$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 741 | 55.9%414 W · 327 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23c3…bdf4backed No | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -4.0wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8cae…b135backed Yes | 30c | 57.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.13 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…f37fbacked No | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17f1…94b2backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11f0…890dbacked No | 69c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed No | 73c | 24.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 98 | 55.1%54 W · 44 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 73c | 21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 95 | 61.1%58 W · 37 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 200 | 42%84 W · 116 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ferencvárosi TC win on 2025-10-23?this page
- Will FC Red Bull Salzburg vs. Ferencvárosi TC end in a draw?No won
- Will FC Red Bull Salzburg win on 2025-10-23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.