Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will FC Red Bull Salzburg vs. Ferencvárosi TC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd4605973d05e8b55dc4aa620765db9e1ed75f3de0146f2a1099ff402043a64f6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,119
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,589
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,119 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf3e2…1026backed Yes | 26c | 550.62$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 26c | 338$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.07 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xade8…b0bdbacked No | 74c | 257$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.82 | 41 | 65.9%27 W · 14 L | +3.8wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +36%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Yes | 21c | 253.61$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.26 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed No | 78c | 243.45$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.05 | 87 | 55.2%48 W · 39 L | +7.3wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ce…7fa9backed Yes | 26c | 192.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 73c | 125.93$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 245 | 57.6%141 W · 104 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b2c…5e10backed Yes | 27c | 111.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 16c | 101.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a2…bffcbacked Yes | 23c | 78.26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 22c | 77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 428 | 44.9%192 W · 236 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 75c | 67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.75 | 118 | 69.5%82 W · 36 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 25c | 67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 75c | 60.36$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 130 | 54.6%71 W · 59 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked No | 74c | 30.8$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.01 | 151 | 51%77 W · 74 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 95 | 61.1%58 W · 37 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Red Bull Salzburg vs. Ferencvárosi TC end in a draw?this page
- Will FC Red Bull Salzburg win on 2025-10-23?No won
- Will Ferencvárosi TC win on 2025-10-23?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.