Northern Arizona Lumberjacks vs. San Diego Toreros

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3810910bbd8865bbed2b83cf941490560b632125e7223cbe4163270ed48bcae6

Rebuilt 6 hours ago.

Winning outcome: San Diego Torerosof Northern Arizona Lumberjacks, San Diego Toreros
Resolved: Dec 13, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $9,020
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $9,054

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,020 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xb13d…2e90backed San Diego Toreros	66c	2,860$1,877 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$983.27	556	57.4%319 W · 237 L	+20.3wins	+0.04per pick	54cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks	34c	1,753$594 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$593.99	2,555	41.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L	-15.9wins	-0.01per pick	42cpaid	-20.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks	35c	1,100$385 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$385.13	1,074	47%505 W · 569 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0ed4…4547backed San Diego Toreros	66c	500$330 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$170	29	72.4%21 W · 8 L	+6.5wins	+0.22per pick	50cpaid	+84.9%equal weight	63+0.12 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked San Diego Toreros	65c	469$305 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$164.15	4,848	52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L	+139.2wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0e88…f3c9backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks	14c	430.37$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.27	97	29.9%29 W · 68 L	-1.8wins	-0.02per pick	32cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Northern Arizona Lumberjacks	34c	427$145 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$145.18	1,391	44.1%613 W · 778 L	-10.6wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Northern Arizona Lumberjacks	36c	300$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108	294	44.6%131 W · 163 L	+8.7wins	+0.03per pick	42cpaid	+8.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks	19c	220$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.92	1,420	43.9%623 W · 797 L	+8.4wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde7d…499ebacked Northern Arizona Lumberjacks	19c	200$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38	41	22%9 W · 32 L	-2.9wins	-0.07per pick	29cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked San Diego Toreros	65c	190.79$124 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$66.78	163	41.7%68 W · 95 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks	11c	177.61$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.97	2,254	42.2%951 W · 1,303 L	+3.4wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks	23c	177.03$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.18	3,905	58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L	+165.3wins	+0.04per pick	55cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked San Diego Toreros	64c	176.83$113 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$63.78	12,422	49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L	+118.8wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97c3…b479backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks	18c	167.2$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.25	128	40.6%52 W · 76 L	-11.4wins	-0.09per pick	50cpaid	-23.3%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed San Diego Toreros	60c	109$66 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43.15	2,579	47.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L	-42.7wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6919…d27bbacked Northern Arizona Lumberjacks	11c	100$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	57	35.1%20 W · 37 L	-2.0wins	-0.03per pick	39cpaid	-25%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0362…449ebacked Northern Arizona Lumberjacks	40c	100$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	254	38.2%97 W · 157 L	-14.3wins	-0.06per pick	44cpaid	-18.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed San Diego Toreros	62c	92$57 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.96	5,553	47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L	+26.3wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x9242…60babacked San Diego Toreros	67c	75$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.75	10	60%6 W · 4 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	59cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdae5…ed7ebacked San Diego Toreros	65c	71$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.85	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.09per pick	59cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12bd…133abacked Northern Arizona Lumberjacks	36c	38$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.68	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.36per pick	36cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc07d…5bd8backed San Diego Toreros	80c	35.95$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.2	31	58.1%18 W · 13 L	+3.9wins	+0.13per pick	45cpaid	+38.3%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc7f7…2abfbacked Northern Arizona Lumberjacks	38c	28.19$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.71	529	28.4%150 W · 379 L	-9.2wins	-0.02per pick	30cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Northern Arizona Lumberjacks vs. San Diego Torerosthis page
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks vs. San Diego Toreros: O/U 149.5Under won
Spread: San Diego Toreros (-3.5)San Diego Toreros won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Northern Arizona Lumberjacks vs. San Diego Toreros

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event