Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Nemiga Gaming vs Rune Eaters - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3813f5a4eb692a03271e5d044d279512c4b3397689a2983ae4b7cec20cb62b1d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nemiga Gamingof Nemiga Gaming, Rune Eaters
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,845
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,472
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,845 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x124e…6802backed Rune Eaters | 51c | 1,995$1,023 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,023.35 | 130 | 68.5%89 W · 41 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31a4…7afcbacked Nemiga Gaming | 33c | 1,202$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$805.13 | 953 | 42.2%402 W · 551 L | -20.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ce…a57abacked Rune Eaters | 67c | 1,140$764 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$763.58 | 1,202 | 59.3%713 W · 489 L | +64.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d3f…ab65backed Rune Eaters | 66c | 998.34$658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$658.14 | 97 | 49.5%48 W · 49 L | -7.3wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked Nemiga Gaming | 44c | 924.8$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.36 | 670 | 43.3%290 W · 380 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a05…12a2backed Nemiga Gaming | 45c | 834.87$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.18 | 476 | 50.8%242 W · 234 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07fa…f5cdbacked Nemiga Gaming | 35c | 580.49$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.32 | 462 | 40.7%188 W · 274 L | +15.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3d…cfffbacked Rune Eaters | 65c | 500$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325 | 367 | 59.1%217 W · 150 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c07…5feabacked Nemiga Gaming | 70c | 466.85$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.91 | 179 | 54.2%97 W · 82 L | -12.6wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc55…a069backed Nemiga Gaming | 34c | 462.01$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.93 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x315f…85c6backed Rune Eaters | 61c | 280$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 293 | 47.4%139 W · 154 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a57…968cbacked Nemiga Gaming | 32c | 270$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.6 | 200 | 43.5%87 W · 113 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Rune Eaters | 68c | 255.56$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.78 | 866 | 59.6%516 W · 350 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1709…c148backed Nemiga Gaming | 48c | 244.78$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.84 | 483 | 52.4%253 W · 230 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Nemiga Gaming | 47c | 231.89$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.22 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ef…840bbacked Rune Eaters | 66c | 226.98$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.59 | 90 | 58.9%53 W · 37 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…dc17backed Nemiga Gaming | 61c | 211.74$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.53 | 73 | 76.7%56 W · 17 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe9b…cbe5backed Nemiga Gaming | 51c | 190.31$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.25 | 52 | 42.3%22 W · 30 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Nemiga Gaming | 34c | 179.81$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.45 | 1,260 | 49.7%626 W · 634 L | +21.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x449f…f386backed Rune Eaters | 63c | 149.13$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.89 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.37per pick | 50cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2f03…77dcbacked Nemiga Gaming | 40c | 148.97$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.89 | 292 | 40.4%118 W · 174 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked Nemiga Gaming | 60c | 146.95$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.17 | 913 | 56.1%512 W · 401 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8efb…c0e6backed Nemiga Gaming | 75c | 136.4$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.78 | 222 | 59%131 W · 91 L | -11.3wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x127e…cca1backed Rune Eaters | 58c | 122.9$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.86 | 461 | 50.8%234 W · 227 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aad…88d4backed Nemiga Gaming | 51c | 81.53$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.95 | 144 | 43.8%63 W · 81 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9be…a0c1backed Rune Eaters | 27c | 61.16$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 252 | 53.2%134 W · 118 L | +20.3wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Nemiga Gaming | 45c | 53.72$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.55 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb308…23a6backed Rune Eaters | 54c | 45.02$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.31 | 169 | 39.6%67 W · 102 L | -15.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3066…693abacked Rune Eaters | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 546 | 48.5%265 W · 281 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6af2…8bd8backed Nemiga Gaming | 45c | 38.93$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.53 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa306…a39dbacked Rune Eaters | 67c | 38.23$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.61 | 105 | 61%64 W · 41 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a13…0473backed Rune Eaters | 55c | 37.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.89 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +44%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc623…9c7dbacked Rune Eaters | 76c | 32.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 367 | 61%224 W · 143 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65cf…5cdebacked Nemiga Gaming | 34c | 31.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.54 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked Nemiga Gaming | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 958 | 41.1%394 W · 564 L | +32.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked Rune Eaters | 64c | 17.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Nemiga Gaming vs Rune Eaters - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Nemiga Gaming vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - European Pro League PlayoffsNemiga Gaming won
- Dota 2: Nemiga Gaming vs Rune Eaters - Game 1 WinnerNemiga Gaming won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.