Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Nemiga Gaming vs Rune Eaters - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x657fce15aa4afd8c91e999b17e7c0b1ebe0cfbdd1938a97a758cd889c33e87a2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nemiga Gamingof Nemiga Gaming, Rune Eaters
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,988
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,288
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,988 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd06c…cdafbacked Rune Eaters | 34c | 1,890$634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$634.19 | 1,186 | 43.2%512 W · 674 L | +42.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x124e…6802backed Nemiga Gaming | 80c | 1,113$888 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.93 | 130 | 68.5%89 W · 41 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31a4…7afcbacked Nemiga Gaming | 45c | 969.81$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$536.31 | 953 | 42.2%402 W · 551 L | -20.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0188…91babacked Rune Eaters | 56c | 869.47$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.8 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…387ebacked Rune Eaters | 53c | 627.21$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.58 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a95…343bbacked Nemiga Gaming | 50c | 600$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 698 | 35.2%246 W · 452 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab90…a576backed Rune Eaters | 78c | 568.77$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.13 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3d…cfffbacked Rune Eaters | 58c | 400$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232 | 367 | 59.1%217 W · 150 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07fa…f5cdbacked Nemiga Gaming | 54c | 399.98$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.99 | 462 | 40.7%188 W · 274 L | +15.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Nemiga Gaming | 43c | 383.14$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.15 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Nemiga Gaming | 51c | 369.89$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.92 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f03…77dcbacked Nemiga Gaming | 36c | 324.41$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.05 | 292 | 40.4%118 W · 174 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked Nemiga Gaming | 34c | 252.28$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.99 | 670 | 43.3%290 W · 380 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62c6…ab7bbacked Rune Eaters | 66c | 247.97$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc55…a069backed Nemiga Gaming | 32c | 247.22$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.11 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x974f…cd80backed Rune Eaters | 42c | 239.48$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.77 | 551 | 47.5%262 W · 289 L | +22.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Nemiga Gaming | 46c | 225.34$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.85 | 1,260 | 49.7%626 W · 634 L | +21.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a13…0473backed Nemiga Gaming | 27c | 180$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +44%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked Rune Eaters | 13c | 167.41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.47 | 690 | 33.3%230 W · 460 L | -27.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c07…5feabacked Nemiga Gaming | 57c | 159.64$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.64 | 179 | 54.2%97 W · 82 L | -12.6wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…dc17backed Rune Eaters | 75c | 98.98$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.81 | 73 | 76.7%56 W · 17 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6326…6329backed Rune Eaters | 49c | 94.96$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.53 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x127e…cca1backed Nemiga Gaming | 34c | 93.5$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.92 | 461 | 50.8%234 W · 227 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9be…a0c1backed Nemiga Gaming | 44c | 65.72$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.09 | 252 | 53.2%134 W · 118 L | +20.3wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked Rune Eaters | 46c | 59.41$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 958 | 41.1%394 W · 564 L | +32.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb308…23a6backed Nemiga Gaming | 55c | 53.41$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.23 | 169 | 39.6%67 W · 102 L | -15.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3066…693abacked Rune Eaters | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 546 | 48.5%265 W · 281 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9332…a3dbbacked Nemiga Gaming | 43c | 26.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.25 | 760 | 48.6%369 W · 391 L | +26.2wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a00…e8e7backed Nemiga Gaming | 68c | 26.38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -5.2wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x326f…1a19backed Rune Eaters | 79c | 22.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 74 | 56.8%42 W · 32 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c8…a184backed Rune Eaters | 61c | 17.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 360 | 44.2%159 W · 201 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Nemiga Gaming vs Rune Eaters - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Nemiga Gaming vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - European Pro League PlayoffsNemiga Gaming won
- Dota 2: Nemiga Gaming vs Rune Eaters - Game 2 WinnerNemiga Gaming won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.