Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Zero Tenacity - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x382b701516dd426de0649e2e05185cfb5af50897e1c562c561875ed3f9a1ff2d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nigma Galaxyof Nigma Galaxy, Zero Tenacity
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,234
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,237
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,234 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xab04…a00abacked Zero Tenacity | 33c | 1,502$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.56 | 379 | 45.9%174 W · 205 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e44…21bcbacked Zero Tenacity | 17c | 1,180$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.6 | 798 | 59%471 W · 327 L | +16.1wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ce…a57abacked Zero Tenacity | 38c | 1,143$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.26 | 1,202 | 59.3%713 W · 489 L | +64.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Nigma Galaxy | 67c | 800.44$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.38 | 772 | 56.5%436 W · 336 L | +30.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05d1…2bb3backed Zero Tenacity | 31c | 554.99$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.05 | 172 | 48.3%83 W · 89 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Nigma Galaxy | 65c | 535.27$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.02 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2903…9203backed Nigma Galaxy | 67c | 438.9$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.84 | 194 | 58.8%114 W · 80 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Nigma Galaxy | 62c | 420$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.6 | 1,066 | 57%608 W · 458 L | +52.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Nigma Galaxy | 73c | 316.72$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.52 | 866 | 59.6%516 W · 350 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16db…8d0fbacked Nigma Galaxy | 67c | 287.64$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.92 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cfc…4f30backed Zero Tenacity | 27c | 239.99$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.8 | 377 | 45.4%171 W · 206 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2798…a9c7backed Zero Tenacity | 34c | 230.51$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.65 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Nigma Galaxy | 66c | 211$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.74 | 562 | 43.2%243 W · 319 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Zero Tenacity | 33c | 153.88$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.53 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f2…eec6backed Nigma Galaxy | 71c | 138.68$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.43 | 554 | 57.8%320 W · 234 L | +12.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac17…eccabacked Zero Tenacity | 28c | 121.29$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.51 | 174 | 46%80 W · 94 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Nigma Galaxy | 65c | 120$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.3 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked Nigma Galaxy | 64c | 112.44$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.98 | 1,280 | 45%576 W · 704 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x812a…73edbacked Zero Tenacity | 25c | 108.95$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.05 | 372 | 23.1%86 W · 286 L | -38.2wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…eb73backed Nigma Galaxy | 69c | 99.73$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.03 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f08…e919backed Nigma Galaxy | 69c | 98.42$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.51 | 308 | 34.1%105 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce5…a07fbacked Nigma Galaxy | 67c | 73.15$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.14 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x839f…c2cebacked Zero Tenacity | 32c | 71.94$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.02 | 199 | 51.8%103 W · 96 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6b…d653backed Nigma Galaxy | 70c | 57.64$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.29 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.27per pick | 62cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Nigma Galaxy | 67c | 53.06$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.77 | 1,260 | 49.7%626 W · 634 L | +21.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa35c…a113backed Zero Tenacity | 31c | 41.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 617 | 45.7%282 W · 335 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3135…f6c3backed Nigma Galaxy | 67c | 39.79$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.13 | 120 | 65.8%79 W · 41 L | +15.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +25%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5867…2e20backed Nigma Galaxy | 70c | 35.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.52 | 253 | 39.1%99 W · 154 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Nigma Galaxy | 73c | 33.45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 165 | 53.3%88 W · 77 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc005…97dbbacked Nigma Galaxy | 65c | 30.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40ba…7ea5backed Nigma Galaxy | 72c | 27.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 537 | 57.7%310 W · 227 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b00…795fbacked Nigma Galaxy | 73c | 27.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x225b…922ebacked Nigma Galaxy | 74c | 26.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Nigma Galaxy | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 745 | 49.3%367 W · 378 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03f4…7e44backed Nigma Galaxy | 67c | 24.57$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.11 | 568 | 52.5%298 W · 270 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Zero Tenacity - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 PlayoffsNigma Galaxy won
- Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Zero Tenacity - Game 1 WinnerNigma Galaxy won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.