MLB · resolved market
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3850baa32f387eac1e997a664235b6c17a300cb6938d7e61bf885ae4a3c36d99
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Colorado Rockiesof Miami Marlins, Colorado Rockies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,570
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,671
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,570 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Colorado Rockies | 58c | 3,259$1,893 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,366.6 | 155 | 50.3%78 W · 77 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Miami Marlins | 42c | 3,180$1,336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,335.58 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Colorado Rockies | 55c | 706.66$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf21…2ed8backed Miami Marlins | 45c | 564.44$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Miami Marlins | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 341 | 45.2%154 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…600dbacked Miami Marlins | 46c | 99.98$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.99 | 603 | 50.1%302 W · 301 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf46d…aae7backed Colorado Rockies | 58c | 85.14$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.64 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04eb…f50dbacked Colorado Rockies | 57c | 80.07$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.24 | 187 | 54%101 W · 86 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe02…5fb3backed Miami Marlins | 39c | 45.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 158 | 47.5%75 W · 83 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Miami Marlins | 41c | 45.15$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Colorado Rockies | 62c | 39$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef92…f133backed Miami Marlins | 37c | 37.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -5.7wins | -0.36per pick | 54cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Miami Marlins | 42c | 37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 2,329 | 49.8%1,160 W · 1,169 L | +41.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Colorado Rockies | 55c | 30.81$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.94 | 650 | 50.3%327 W · 323 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Miami Marlins | 44c | 26.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf93c…475ebacked Miami Marlins | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 65 | 41.5%27 W · 38 L | -6.4wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Colorado Rockies | 56c | 21.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.39 | 343 | 55.4%190 W · 153 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)this page
- Colorado Rockies vs. Miami MarlinsMiami Marlins won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5Under won
- NRFI: Colorado Rockies vs. Miami MarlinsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.