MLB · resolved market
Colorado Rockies vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd00a478bf4e423e07cbd67f124ca92b6caa6f6f5070fee68384c9e59fc021e46
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,374
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,207
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,374 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1bec…4569backed Over | 49c | 3,927$1,924 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,924.13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce99…637ebacked Under | 52c | 2,725$1,417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,307.84 | 86 | 46.5%40 W · 46 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 51c | 2,467$1,258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,208.83 | 465 | 47.1%219 W · 246 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5318…1118backed Under | 54c | 2,229$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,029.14 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Under | 51c | 2,173$1,118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,054.97 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4c1…5177backed Under | 53c | 2,170$1,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,019.81 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 47c | 2,035$957 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$957.09 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 46c | 1,922$884 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$883.91 | 650 | 50.3%327 W · 323 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 48c | 1,216$584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$583.61 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Over | 44c | 923.74$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.26 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 48c | 687.5$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 59c | 682$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.62 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2621…a233backed Over | 47c | 555$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5919…95acbacked Over | 48c | 519$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.12 | 114 | 54.4%62 W · 52 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4328…11d2backed Under | 54c | 500$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 67 | 49.3%33 W · 34 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 28c | 467.17$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.98 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c9b…a556backed Under | 53c | 439.99$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.8 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x523e…3128backed Under | 67c | 350$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69c2…40cfbacked Over | 45c | 349.99$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.5 | 182 | 39.6%72 W · 110 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x298c…3e58backed Over | 48c | 304.17$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5316…1d07backed Under | 52c | 300$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 48c | 259.46$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.54 | 323 | 48.9%158 W · 165 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 47c | 243.46$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.43 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7cb…bc54backed Over | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | +10.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 51c | 209.46$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.65 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Over | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 126 | 55.6%70 W · 56 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x292e…172cbacked Over | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 100 | 56%56 W · 44 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Over | 48c | 206$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.88 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Under | 55c | 140$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Over | 48c | 125$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe65b…271bbacked Under | 53c | 103.77$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.77 | 125 | 49.6%62 W · 63 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 2,261 | 45.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe44c…f15cbacked Over | 48c | 98$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.04 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf46d…aae7backed Under | 52c | 95.19$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.69 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Over | 47c | 95$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.05 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Over | 48c | 93$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.64 | 153 | 51.6%79 W · 74 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Over | 47c | 66$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.02 | 232 | 48.7%113 W · 119 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 53c | 64.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.55 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 47c | 63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.61 | 310 | 38.4%119 W · 191 L | +9.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c4…df5fbacked Under | 52c | 61.54$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.54 | 398 | 50.3%200 W · 198 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 55c | 60.78$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.35 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…8dbebacked Under | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 93 | 49.5%46 W · 47 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Over | 47c | 48.94$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 674 | 53%357 W · 317 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 53c | 48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.72 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Over | 48c | 41.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc798…a8e9backed Over | 47c | 39.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.53 | 106 | 49.1%52 W · 54 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Over | 48c | 28.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 443 | 47.9%212 W · 231 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 43c | 28.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Over | 47c | 27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x330d…f0c4backed Under | 47c | 26.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +3.1wins | +0.31per pick | 59cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdb33…4a7cbacked Over | 51c | 19.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Colorado Rockies vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5this page
- Colorado Rockies vs. Miami MarlinsMiami Marlins won
- NRFI: Colorado Rockies vs. Miami MarlinsYes won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Colorado Rockies won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.