Fifa International · resolved market
Spread: Hong Kong SAR (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x385a22e599e34cce6c333e4751a0e627d43050968e12462c92bdbd543afbcc80
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cambodiaof Hong Kong SAR, Cambodia
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,454
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,353
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,454 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4740…fa66backed Hong Kong SAR | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 203 | 25.6%52 W · 151 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Cambodia | 77c | 196.04$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.51 | 3,731 | 51.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L | +55.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Cambodia | 76c | 183.83$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.6 | 1,560 | 43.8%684 W · 876 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Hong Kong SAR | 22c | 180.15$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 257 | 27.2%70 W · 187 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Hong Kong SAR | 24c | 160$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.61 | 3,992 | 24.9%994 W · 2,998 L | -47.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…ca25backed Hong Kong SAR | 19c | 110.53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Hong Kong SAR | 27c | 101.14$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 1,001 | 53.9%540 W · 461 L | +34.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d7…0dfcbacked Hong Kong SAR | 22c | 98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 585 | 30.9%181 W · 404 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -28%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Hong Kong SAR | 22c | 87.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 823 | 40.9%337 W · 486 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…c413backed Hong Kong SAR | 26c | 54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 266 | 31.2%83 W · 183 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Cambodia | 78c | 49.5$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 831 | 53.3%443 W · 388 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Cambodia | 78c | 46.13$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 1,616 | 51.2%827 W · 789 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Cambodia | 78c | 43$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 1,688 | 54.4%918 W · 770 L | +31.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Cambodia | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 345 | 54.2%187 W · 158 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x446d…a0b2backed Cambodia | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 72 | 69.4%50 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…5720backed Cambodia | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 220 | 52.3%115 W · 105 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Hong Kong SAR (-1.5)this page
- Cambodia vs. Hong Kong SAR: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Cambodia vs. Hong Kong SAR: O/U 0.5Over won
- Cambodia vs. Hong Kong SAR: O/U 1.5Over won
- Cambodia vs. Hong Kong SAR: O/U 2.5Under won
- Cambodia vs. Hong Kong SAR: O/U 3.5Under won
- Cambodia vs. Hong Kong SAR: O/U 4.5Under won
- Cambodia vs. Hong Kong SAR: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Cambodia (-1.5)Cambodia won
- Spread: Cambodia (-2.5)Hong Kong SAR won
- Spread: Hong Kong SAR (-2.5)Cambodia won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.