Fifa International · resolved market
Cambodia vs. Hong Kong SAR: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x598ac0e25e56bdd72968221a77012e84e1e047bc97d9b14b5b100fba9e9f6a42
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,412
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,260
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,412 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 64c | 4,249$2,739 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,509.55 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over | 30c | 2,999$885 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$884.8 | 454 | 21.4%97 W · 357 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Under | 50c | 1,980$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$980.39 | 202 | 62.4%126 W · 76 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 43c | 1,914$816 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$816.21 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c06…aa42backed Under | 67c | 1,493$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.16 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f7…0c5abacked Under | 48c | 1,112$534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$578.21 | 121 | 46.3%56 W · 65 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca6…6a20backed Over | 32c | 1,052$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336 | 217 | 47.9%104 W · 113 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae5…4f22backed Over | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 184 | 65.8%121 W · 63 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd147…ecbdbacked Over | 42c | 700$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293 | 141 | 46.1%65 W · 76 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 39c | 532.97$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.38 | 2,407 | 37.7%908 W · 1,499 L | -48.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x140e…cf85backed Under | 59c | 508.47$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.47 | 161 | 53.4%86 W · 75 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Over | 35c | 439.63$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.08 | 92 | 30.4%28 W · 64 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 35c | 406.72$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.72 | 3,992 | 24.9%994 W · 2,998 L | -47.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 46c | 398.88$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.34 | 387 | 45%174 W · 213 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7210…521fbacked Over | 66c | 398$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.68 | 81 | 58%47 W · 34 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc65a…2e83backed Under | 51c | 305.88$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.88 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x630c…f294backed Over | 38c | 290.16$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.92 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc0…af1abacked Over | 44c | 272.73$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 72 | 37.5%27 W · 45 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b9cebacked Over | 51c | 263.93$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.92 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6882…6f08backed Over | 69c | 223.1$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.94 | 224 | 66.1%148 W · 76 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa374…9709backed Under | 50c | 217.59$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.8 | 144 | 33.3%48 W · 96 L | -8.7wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf15d…0fa4backed Over | 45c | 211.89$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.55 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 23cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Over | 45c | 211.19$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.48 | 823 | 40.9%337 W · 486 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 16c | 208.33$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 356 | 58.7%209 W · 147 L | +35.0wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +28%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 49c | 197.02$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.48 | 1,873 | 48.4%906 W · 967 L | +14.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc464…5139backed Over | 55c | 181.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 335 | 44.5%149 W · 186 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b1…d4d4backed Under | 62c | 173.63$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.63 | 105 | 40%42 W · 63 L | -10.9wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -27%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad5…37b9backed Under | 53c | 171.7$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.66 | 130 | 59.2%77 W · 53 L | +31.0wins | +0.24per pick | 35cpaid | +118.1%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x06a0…5804backed Over | 60c | 164.28$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.57 | 100 | 50%50 W · 50 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43f6…ee3ebacked Under | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Over | 49c | 161.39$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.08 | 1,702 | 36.7%625 W · 1,077 L | -31.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 15c | 151.2$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.34 | 4,027 | 38.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L | -26.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06d6…8360backed Over | 54c | 150$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d11…03aebacked Over | 48c | 145.87$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.44 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb253…26febacked Under | 48c | 135.42$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.42 | 135 | 48.1%65 W · 70 L | -9.2wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7bb…2753backed Over | 51c | 118$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.18 | 87 | 50.6%44 W · 43 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db0…5b69backed Under | 44c | 113.2$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.2 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Over | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2,626 | 41.1%1,080 W · 1,546 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Under | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 200 | 50%100 W · 100 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 51c | 98.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.48 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe569…e759backed Over | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 524 | 41.4%217 W · 307 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 551 | 53%292 W · 259 L | +11.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee7…f36ebacked Under | 53c | 93.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.7 | 112 | 53.6%60 W · 52 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42e7…d4ccbacked Over | 60c | 93.33$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 119 | 65.5%78 W · 41 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 16c | 91.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 289 | 64.4%186 W · 103 L | +42.6wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x8328…e5ebbacked Under | 61c | 91.13$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.54 | 365 | 43.3%158 W · 207 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 51c | 91$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.41 | 2,171 | 38.2%829 W · 1,342 L | -36.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 61c | 90.34$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.23 | 740 | 34.1%252 W · 488 L | -36.1wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 49c | 88.57$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.06 | 848 | 44.3%376 W · 472 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 49c | 88$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.88 | 1,688 | 54.4%918 W · 770 L | +31.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…3c59backed Over | 30c | 86.67$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 165 | 47.9%79 W · 86 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf5…e71cbacked Over | 55c | 59.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.99 | 115 | 49.6%57 W · 58 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 46c | 56.5$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.28 | 4,457 | 37.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L | +31.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0435…a10ebacked Under | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…572dbacked Over | 31c | 51.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 76 | 40.8%31 W · 45 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Over | 29c | 51.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 908 | 40.9%371 W · 537 L | -64.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Over | 35c | 51.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 155 | 43.9%68 W · 87 L | +9.0wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 49c | 46.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.97 | 1,616 | 51.2%827 W · 789 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Over | 39c | 46.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 218 | 58.7%128 W · 90 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Over | 46c | 43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 935 | 42.2%395 W · 540 L | -27.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5a…39e0backed Over | 37c | 41.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 51c | 41$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.26 | 3,731 | 51.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L | +55.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over | 51c | 40.59$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 363 | 29.8%108 W · 255 L | -17.4wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bc8…a613backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.83 | 82 | 61%50 W · 32 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3c…4b61backed Under | 44c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d54…81a1backed Over | 50c | 39.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd5…feb0backed Over | 51c | 37.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 145 | 50.3%73 W · 72 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82a5…674ebacked Over | 63c | 33.81$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Over | 38c | 31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 237 | 43.9%104 W · 133 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc36…0665backed Over | 48c | 29.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 186 | 49.5%92 W · 94 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffc9…bf01backed Under | 66c | 29.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 144 | 58.3%84 W · 60 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee8…ae98backed Over | 55c | 25.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1171…16cfbacked Over | 59c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd93…56c0backed Over | 49c | 23.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 101 | 57.4%58 W · 43 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4571…a952backed Under | 73c | 20.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 50c | 20.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 1,560 | 43.8%684 W · 876 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9e2…8f92backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e0…c1bbbacked Over | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed Under | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 86 | 51.2%44 W · 42 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Under | 74c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 118 | 60.2%71 W · 47 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cambodia vs. Hong Kong SAR: O/U 2.5this page
- Cambodia vs. Hong Kong SAR: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Cambodia vs. Hong Kong SAR: O/U 0.5Over won
- Cambodia vs. Hong Kong SAR: O/U 1.5Over won
- Cambodia vs. Hong Kong SAR: O/U 3.5Under won
- Cambodia vs. Hong Kong SAR: O/U 4.5Under won
- Cambodia vs. Hong Kong SAR: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Cambodia (-1.5)Cambodia won
- Spread: Cambodia (-2.5)Hong Kong SAR won
- Spread: Hong Kong SAR (-1.5)Cambodia won
- Spread: Hong Kong SAR (-2.5)Cambodia won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.