Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x389ce287efe6f5620d11b68df6c239561093d6d9d19b493673a96249ad617401
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,387
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,801
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,387 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 22c | 367.06$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.05 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x398c…c935backed Yes | 12c | 349.35$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.25 | 217 | 35%76 W · 141 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf045…c619backed Yes | 29c | 326.34$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.18 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 65c | 209.13$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.88 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 72c | 205.88$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.22 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 75c | 161.49$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.98 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 15c | 128.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 72c | 117.47$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.35 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 65c | 116.44$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.34 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5276…800dbacked Yes | 39c | 109.27$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.07 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd297…2919backed No | 64c | 108.67$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.79 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 75c | 101$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.99 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f6…b176backed Yes | 18c | 88.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 28cpaid | -88.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4f79…af92backed Yes | 20c | 88.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 36c | 69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 20c | 51.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 36c | 41.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 35c | 40.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed No | 80c | 38.75$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 252 | 61.9%156 W · 96 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe4…2a32backed No | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 29c | 35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 75c | 31.29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 69c | 28.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x117a…01babacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +3.0wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb5…97d1backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +10%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 62c | 17.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.78 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 78c | 17.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 67c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.36 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…e682backed No | 67c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.36 | 258 | 68.2%176 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb35…0988backed No | 80c | 14.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.87 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.