Tennis · resolved market
ITF M25 Lesa Men: Maxime Janvier vs Daniele Rapagnetta
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x38a049195782fd5803b5da22da3b2d5a9d98e821b1c05b49e9768e28850fad58
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Daniele Rapagnettaof Maxime Janvier, Daniele Rapagnetta
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,982
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,823
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,982 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fd9…544abacked Maxime Janvier | 47c | 3,174$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 201 | 55.7%112 W · 89 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…986cbacked Daniele Rapagnetta | 66c | 1,055$695 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.2 | 641 | 47.7%306 W · 335 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…387ebacked Daniele Rapagnetta | 50c | 995$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.92 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…b506backed Maxime Janvier | 42c | 799.99$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.99 | 104 | 46.2%48 W · 56 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Daniele Rapagnetta | 52c | 534.28$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.48 | 11,666 | 43.4%5,059 W · 6,607 L | +22.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5513…de2abacked Daniele Rapagnetta | 44c | 489.48$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.43 | 792 | 38.3%303 W · 489 L | -15.8wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…f1bdbacked Daniele Rapagnetta | 61c | 450.26$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.02 | 1,008 | 57.7%582 W · 426 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Daniele Rapagnetta | 49c | 403.89$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.37 | 6,574 | 46.2%3,037 W · 3,537 L | -45.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Maxime Janvier | 44c | 361.38$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.06 | 8,241 | 45.5%3,746 W · 4,495 L | +166.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13f7…85d5backed Daniele Rapagnetta | 41c | 306.66$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.47 | 1,314 | 39%512 W · 802 L | -23.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Daniele Rapagnetta | 58c | 245.91$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.32 | 8,702 | 42.6%3,708 W · 4,994 L | -165.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8c…e040backed Daniele Rapagnetta | 42c | 198.75$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.1 | 654 | 37.5%245 W · 409 L | -33.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c99…8b23backed Maxime Janvier | 59c | 178.95$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.21 | 175 | 59.4%104 W · 71 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f98…cb91backed Daniele Rapagnetta | 26c | 172.95$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.22 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -29%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Daniele Rapagnetta | 32c | 142.16$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.67 | 3,262 | 40.3%1,314 W · 1,948 L | +22.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Daniele Rapagnetta | 32c | 114.94$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.16 | 2,179 | 37%807 W · 1,372 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Daniele Rapagnetta | 42c | 108.79$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.1 | 3,457 | 38.9%1,345 W · 2,112 L | -15.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2064…0ab1backed Maxime Janvier | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 401 | 44.1%177 W · 224 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Daniele Rapagnetta | 57c | 94.88$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.7 | 9,038 | 36.1%3,266 W · 5,772 L | -196.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf12c…a6f7backed Maxime Janvier | 42c | 79.19$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.18 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -3.5wins | -0.19per pick | 45cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x023d…23acbacked Daniele Rapagnetta | 52c | 72.72$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.21 | 618 | 55.8%345 W · 273 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…ef3dbacked Daniele Rapagnetta | 62c | 62.14$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.87 | 436 | 52.1%227 W · 209 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Daniele Rapagnetta | 61c | 61.05$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.91 | 1,842 | 41%755 W · 1,087 L | -31.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Daniele Rapagnetta | 63c | 48.06$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.87 | 4,341 | 52.3%2,271 W · 2,070 L | +63.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x912f…b25bbacked Maxime Janvier | 43c | 45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 111 | 41.4%46 W · 65 L | -6.2wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Daniele Rapagnetta | 53c | 45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.28 | 6,792 | 36.9%2,505 W · 4,287 L | -98.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed Maxime Janvier | 37c | 45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 710 | 45.4%322 W · 388 L | -13.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f38…13c8backed Maxime Janvier | 42c | 39.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Daniele Rapagnetta | 44c | 39.01$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.94 | 5,498 | 48.5%2,667 W · 2,831 L | +10.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c0b…c814backed Maxime Janvier | 79c | 35.37$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 406 | 59.9%243 W · 163 L | +30.3wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…cd13backed Daniele Rapagnetta | 46c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 978 | 52%509 W · 469 L | +7.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2acc…cfedbacked Maxime Janvier | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Maxime Janvier | 49c | 22.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 1,878 | 53.2%1,000 W · 878 L | +30.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3db7…375cbacked Daniele Rapagnetta | 58c | 20.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.73 | 162 | 30.9%50 W · 112 L | +14.9wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…52a2backed Maxime Janvier | 58c | 20.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 161 | 44.7%72 W · 89 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…ed66backed Daniele Rapagnetta | 60c | 16.67$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 580 | 45.5%264 W · 316 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.