Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Karlsruher SC win on 2026-04-10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x38b20b60a883afb0e623c4a9d67683421464a3342c5722d5aa193f84d5858231
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,437
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,690
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,437 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 41c | 9,022$3,731 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,731.43 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 53c | 3,297$1,747 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,550.25 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8401…0fa1backed Yes | 29c | 2,882$836 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,046.49 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 25cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe524…d34fbacked Yes | 22c | 2,440$537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,903.13 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 35c | 1,609$571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$571.02 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8c…dc9ebacked No | 74c | 1,337$984 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$984.17 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.34per pick | 63cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 23c | 1,052$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$815.05 | 241 | 32%77 W · 164 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d46…3e2dbacked No | 3c | 816.87$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.62 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.37per pick | 26cpaid | +154.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd932…4164backed No | 37c | 767.85$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fef…5946backed Yes | 13c | 683.38$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$594.28 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58e4…73f9backed Yes | 61c | 560.81$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.01 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 33c | 499.71$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.68 | 222 | 21.6%48 W · 174 L | -34.2wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x258f…4493backed Yes | 27c | 495.31$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.58 | 74 | 24.3%18 W · 56 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 44c | 397.87$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.19 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 71c | 350.24$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.42 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc85f…15f8backed Yes | 63c | 245$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.65 | 38 | 73.7%28 W · 10 L | +5.4wins | +0.14per pick | 60cpaid | +30%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xef9c…7b3fbacked Yes | 18c | 244.8$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.79 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +23%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 54c | 242.17$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.52 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecb2…a30cbacked No | 22c | 226.4$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked Yes | 78c | 223.41$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.15 | 160 | 60.6%97 W · 63 L | +9.1wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 57c | 169.25$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.51 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…eeb8backed No | 72c | 168.13$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.05 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -3.6wins | -0.16per pick | 75cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 28c | 164.93$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.23 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc367…a0b4backed Yes | 61c | 161.52$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.99 | 60 | 30%18 W · 42 L | -6.6wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0178…3f7abacked No | 79c | 141.9$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.1 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…ab7cbacked Yes | 60c | 110$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4820…c613backed Yes | 26c | 85.77$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.52 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdecf…caf2backed No | 39c | 76.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.87 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -4.6wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -33%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf512…5198backed No | 75c | 73.07$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.1 | 41 | 65.9%27 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9f…b23bbacked No | 71c | 61.92$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.67 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3457…0161backed Yes | 61c | 61.86$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.13 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yes | 48c | 60.6$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.47 | 398 | 57.5%229 W · 169 L | +20.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 39c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 275 | 54.9%151 W · 124 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3b…e3eabacked Yes | 67c | 58.33$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.11 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed No | 64c | 52.78$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.93 | 186 | 44.1%82 W · 104 L | -10.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked No | 64c | 52.78$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.93 | 205 | 48.3%99 W · 106 L | -10.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa75c…99dabacked Yes | 26c | 49.66$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e9f…5403backed No | 73c | 48.79$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.61 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b80…8b39backed Yes | 30c | 48.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.67 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3d…b56cbacked Yes | 28c | 47.42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.03 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | +5.4wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 28c | 45.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.03 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 37c | 44.79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 71c | 41$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.11 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked No | 71c | 39.91$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.34 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd77…ef21backed No | 39c | 39.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xceb6…c637backed No | 74c | 38.24$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.36 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b71…9fcdbacked No | 80c | 37.05$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 64cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 70c | 36.67$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.67 | 386 | 46.9%181 W · 205 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 31c | 35.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.65 | 79 | 35.4%28 W · 51 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked Yes | 70c | 35.49$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.69 | 108 | 65.7%71 W · 37 L | +8.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 61c | 34.33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.35 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c9…a454backed No | 40c | 34.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x134c…eeefbacked Yes | 61c | 32.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +5.9wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x78d8…cffcbacked Yes | 62c | 31.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.98 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39c0…2c85backed Yes | 65c | 30.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31b0…8c4cbacked Yes | 62c | 29.32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.14 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c14…2b69backed Yes | 36c | 28.79$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +175.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b56…9100backed No | 73c | 26.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed No | 74c | 23.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | -8.0wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8943…6c65backed No | 69c | 23.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed Yes | 68c | 23.49$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 123 | 46.3%57 W · 66 L | -6.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a91…7ebabacked Yes | 63c | 23.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 57 | 68.4%39 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed No | 72c | 21.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 213 | 55.4%118 W · 95 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed No | 72c | 21.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 208 | 45.7%95 W · 113 L | -16.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked No | 72c | 21.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 178 | 52.8%94 W · 84 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…8757backed No | 72c | 21.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bd…b891backed No | 72c | 21.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 73 | 49.3%36 W · 37 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e4…d947backed No | 72c | 21.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked No | 71c | 20.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 79 | 59.5%47 W · 32 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Karlsruher SC win on 2026-04-10?this page
- Will DSC Arminia Bielefeld win on 2026-04-10?No won
- Will Karlsruher SC vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.