Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Karlsruher SC vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x19ab2d78ffde346157e0ac7cd4588c78e2ced27321efa55585e4568501940d7f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,481
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,040
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,481 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 25c | 3,690$921 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$920.54 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 71c | 2,349$1,660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$688.89 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 72c | 1,860$1,343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517.04 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd6…e33abacked Yes | 30c | 1,597$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 77c | 1,222$936 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.33 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8401…0fa1backed Yes | 29c | 990.41$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.22 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 25cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 73c | 886.26$648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.14 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c23…261ebacked No | 76c | 514.99$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.03 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4306…618abacked Yes | 28c | 478.4$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.95 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb1f…6a93backed Yes | 26c | 382.24$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.38 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +60%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 29c | 368.71$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.93 | 241 | 32%77 W · 164 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 14c | 271.66$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 74c | 261.47$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.98 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 76c | 242.35$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.06 | 337 | 37.4%126 W · 211 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 74c | 211.07$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.88 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed No | 74c | 198$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.48 | 157 | 47.1%74 W · 83 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6580…6fa8backed Yes | 26c | 191.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.83 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdecf…caf2backed Yes | 30c | 191.6$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.48 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -4.6wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -33%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 77c | 152.51$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.06 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb68e…30cfbacked No | 74c | 120.1$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.97 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 74c | 115.42$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.01 | 386 | 46.9%181 W · 205 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49ec…ac1cbacked No | 71c | 99.89$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.17 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4512…5d41backed Yes | 26c | 99.24$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | +7.1wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Yes | 28c | 98.83$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.67 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 76c | 95.74$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.59 | 398 | 57.5%229 W · 169 L | +20.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 74c | 95.45$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.82 | 194 | 58.2%113 W · 81 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +28%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa93…a0c9backed No | 77c | 87.78$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.21 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x610d…6c37backed No | 70c | 77.27$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.18 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 62cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc36f…e5fdbacked Yes | 26c | 70.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…d4bfbacked No | 70c | 62$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 68cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5f…d445backed Yes | 26c | 60.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c6c…b6d7backed No | 58c | 59.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 28c | 52.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 288 | 22.6%65 W · 223 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 26c | 47.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 222 | 21.6%48 W · 174 L | -34.2wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xbb5d…d917backed Yes | 31c | 46.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 42c | 46.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yes | 28c | 46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 275 | 54.9%151 W · 124 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b80…8b39backed Yes | 34c | 42.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef9c…7b3fbacked Yes | 26c | 41.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +23%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c70…b25ebacked No | 72c | 36.34$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed No | 71c | 33.51$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 185 | 54.1%100 W · 85 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed No | 72c | 33.2$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | -8.0wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed No | 72c | 33.2$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 208 | 45.7%95 W · 113 L | -16.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked No | 72c | 33.2$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 178 | 52.8%94 W · 84 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked No | 72c | 33.2$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 205 | 48.3%99 W · 106 L | -10.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…8757backed No | 72c | 33.2$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bd…b891backed No | 72c | 33.2$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 73 | 49.3%36 W · 37 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe57c…b99bbacked No | 70c | 32.95$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9f…b23bbacked No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 74c | 29.53$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b56…9100backed No | 75c | 26.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked No | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 72 | 62.5%45 W · 27 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked No | 72c | 17.89$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.01 | 72 | 65.3%47 W · 25 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 74c | 17.18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.47 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…aa5abacked No | 75c | 15.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.94 | 117 | 62.4%73 W · 44 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Karlsruher SC vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld end in a draw?this page
- Will DSC Arminia Bielefeld win on 2026-04-10?No won
- Will Karlsruher SC win on 2026-04-10?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.