MLB · resolved market
Los Angeles Angels vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x38c7c667ae3b7b920b112682ef8b881489768ae04b8273a1489ca1165d095bf7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,584
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,652
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,584 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 44c | 1,400$616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$784 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 41c | 1,166$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$690.92 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 56c | 1,089$609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$609.45 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…a65fbacked Under | 53c | 1,067$566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$566.42 | 111 | 25.2%28 W · 83 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Under | 54c | 623.96$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.4 | 161 | 35.4%57 W · 104 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 60c | 619.04$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.2 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 65c | 617.75$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.42 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 55c | 380$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209 | 465 | 47.1%219 W · 246 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab30…379fbacked Under | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 47 | 14.9%7 W · 40 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Over | 44c | 189$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.84 | 232 | 48.7%113 W · 119 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7cb…bc54backed Under | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | +10.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5966…af5dbacked Under | 57c | 175$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.75 | 272 | 49.3%134 W · 138 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 43c | 133.87$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.75 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 48c | 123.08$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.2 | 155 | 50.3%78 W · 77 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…cf99backed Under | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 135 | 60%81 W · 54 L | +15.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 55c | 98.26$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.04 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 56c | 97.8$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.31 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Under | 55c | 72.72$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1c…0be3backed Over | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.22 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Under | 55c | 64.4$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.42 | 342 | 55.3%189 W · 153 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 43c | 60.61$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.6 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Over | 47c | 58.77$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.15 | 452 | 46.2%209 W · 243 L | -18.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Over | 47c | 55.74$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed Over | 47c | 54.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.7 | 271 | 46.9%127 W · 144 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 39c | 51.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Over | 43c | 47.86$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.28 | 144 | 42.4%61 W · 83 L | -9.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Over | 47c | 44.38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.52 | 253 | 49.4%125 W · 128 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Over | 47c | 44.38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.52 | 243 | 48.1%117 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…42eebacked Over | 47c | 39.74$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.06 | 377 | 47.2%178 W · 199 L | -10.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Over | 47c | 39.74$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.06 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1030…dd7abacked Over | 47c | 39.74$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.06 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 56c | 38.05$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.18 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Over | 47c | 32.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.17 | 286 | 46.2%132 W · 154 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Under | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 44c | 24.59$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 323 | 48.9%158 W · 165 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 55c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5this page
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Houston AstrosHouston Astros won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5Over won
- NRFI: Los Angeles Angels vs. Houston AstrosYes won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Houston Astros won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.