MLB · resolved market
Los Angeles Angels vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x14065b356b5851ba0c1c41bf31589b8f28368a8f61ed5f1940a203f210c75e94
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,872
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,447
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,872 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x93ab…9723backed Over | 40c | 9,995$3,998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,996.88 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 58c | 9,514$5,539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,538.84 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 60c | 4,179$2,504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,503.87 | 155 | 50.3%78 W · 77 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x816e…b215backed Over | 40c | 2,000$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,200 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 45c | 1,678$751 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750.73 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10d4…d953backed Over | 56c | 999.97$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.99 | 117 | 44.4%52 W · 65 L | -9.0wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Under | 44c | 951.29$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.57 | 272 | 54.4%148 W · 124 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Over | 41c | 708.99$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.3 | 161 | 35.4%57 W · 104 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 55c | 705.88$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.69 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…d603backed Over | 40c | 494.67$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.82 | 137 | 42.3%58 W · 79 L | -7.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Over | 56c | 462.22$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204 | 591 | 50.3%297 W · 294 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc51a…a0d9backed Over | 41c | 438$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.42 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 58c | 378.43$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.45 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 60c | 340.23$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.04 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Under | 59c | 324.01$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.42 | 286 | 46.2%132 W · 154 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5316…1d07backed Under | 44c | 300$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba9…4fa1backed Over | 40c | 250$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1030…dd7abacked Under | 60c | 247.89$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.69 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Under | 60c | 243.32$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.94 | 243 | 48.1%117 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x891d…b19fbacked Over | 43c | 234$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.69 | 127 | 46.5%59 W · 68 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Under | 60c | 229.97$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.98 | 253 | 49.4%125 W · 128 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85a7…d9f3backed Under | 46c | 219.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdae4…f1fcbacked Over | 43c | 218.15$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.76 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8c…31c3backed Under | 60c | 198.6$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.19 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 42c | 187.91$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.21 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed Under | 60c | 182.17$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.3 | 271 | 46.9%127 W · 144 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 60c | 181.83$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.89 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94c4…2a41backed Over | 42c | 181.47$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.97 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 55c | 180.16$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.14 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Over | 55c | 175.5$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.98 | 232 | 48.7%113 W · 119 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e0…d084backed Over | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 203 | 50.2%102 W · 101 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ad…6979backed Over | 43c | 157.8$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.6 | 134 | 41%55 W · 79 L | -12.2wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x354a…ae3ebacked Over | 41c | 135.46$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.34 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +101%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 44c | 121$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.24 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb6…8de2backed Over | 43c | 116.12$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.62 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…f46abacked Over | 43c | 115.89$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +134.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a2d…4f43backed Over | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…cf99backed Under | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 135 | 60%81 W · 54 L | +15.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Over | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 2,261 | 45.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…8dbebacked Over | 56c | 99.86$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.05 | 93 | 49.5%46 W · 47 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabde…d41fbacked Over | 42c | 99.69$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.22 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x529c…053ebacked Under | 44c | 91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.04 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 45c | 89.05$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.77 | 2,329 | 49.8%1,160 W · 1,169 L | +41.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 59c | 84.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.8 | 310 | 38.4%119 W · 191 L | +9.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f16…b5b9backed Over | 41c | 80.29$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.37 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97f7…ada9backed Over | 38c | 78.95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.95 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03eb…47b0backed Over | 42c | 74.07$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.96 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda29…7907backed Over | 42c | 72.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.64 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x810d…6080backed Under | 60c | 62.4$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.44 | 77 | 48.1%37 W · 40 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Under | 60c | 62.03$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.22 | 452 | 46.2%209 W · 243 L | -18.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c88…455dbacked Under | 57c | 61.48$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9510…16dfbacked Over | 41c | 60.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.8 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Over | 54c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9c…1700backed Under | 60c | 57.17$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.3 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc1c…debbbacked Over | 42c | 57$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.13 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 51c | 55.51$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee5c…2775backed Under | 47c | 52.87$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +94%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 34c | 52.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x672d…b570backed Over | 41c | 51.41$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.41 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 46c | 50.48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.22 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abc…b096backed Over | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d5…a8dabacked Over | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 209 | 55.5%116 W · 93 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 57c | 49.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.49 | 1,728 | 50.4%871 W · 857 L | +57.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1da…9709backed Over | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d15…8026backed Over | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.62 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…75abbacked Over | 41c | 46.53$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.53 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbecc…f560backed Over | 41c | 45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.55 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b1c…2871backed Over | 43c | 43.97$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.97 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a51…b2b6backed Over | 42c | 43.31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.21 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcd8…9908backed Over | 40c | 41.55$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.93 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc991…abd4backed Over | 43c | 41.52$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe02…5fb3backed Under | 60c | 40.72$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 158 | 47.5%75 W · 83 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Under | 52c | 35.59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77c4…d390backed Over | 55c | 35.24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.86 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0462…8374backed Over | 40c | 35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 60c | 34.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 107 | 47.7%51 W · 56 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2bc…c003backed Over | 41c | 34.15$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.15 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +129.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x300d…978fbacked Over | 41c | 33.82$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.08 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -43%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf4f…63f3backed Over | 43c | 30.05$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.13 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x330d…f0c4backed Over | 68c | 30.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.71 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +3.1wins | +0.31per pick | 59cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc10c…e8b5backed Over | 69c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbee…30b9backed Under | 44c | 22.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 74 | 51.4%38 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Over | 53c | 19.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.34 | 1,374 | 54.2%745 W · 629 L | +16.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5this page
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Houston AstrosHouston Astros won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5Over won
- NRFI: Los Angeles Angels vs. Houston AstrosYes won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Houston Astros won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.