MLB · resolved market
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd12f948fc7e74c34fd07785c385c5c6d61f7b9275cded56e1de6dba7fb937592
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Houston Astrosof Houston Astros, Los Angeles Angels
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,329
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,442
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,329 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Los Angeles Angels | 49c | 5,838$2,856 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,855.78 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x955f…2a6fbacked Houston Astros | 48c | 2,080$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,080 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Houston Astros | 52c | 1,853$958 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$894.73 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Houston Astros | 52c | 1,800$936 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$863.96 | 155 | 50.3%78 W · 77 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Houston Astros | 64c | 1,198$763 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.24 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Los Angeles Angels | 55c | 1,096$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.8 | 650 | 50.3%327 W · 323 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Los Angeles Angels | 57c | 629.83$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359 | 1,586 | 48.5%770 W · 816 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Houston Astros | 43c | 614$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.98 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Houston Astros | 38c | 599.72$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.05 | 161 | 35.4%57 W · 104 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd51b…9606backed Houston Astros | 45c | 560$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308 | 225 | 48.4%109 W · 116 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Los Angeles Angels | 57c | 450$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.5 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed Los Angeles Angels | 60c | 401.69$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -4.6wins | -0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Houston Astros | 45c | 400$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 591 | 50.3%297 W · 294 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Los Angeles Angels | 12c | 303.57$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.36 | 781 | 46.4%362 W · 419 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Los Angeles Angels | 64c | 183.19$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.53 | 304 | 54.3%165 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…600dbacked Houston Astros | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 603 | 50.1%302 W · 301 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…a69bbacked Houston Astros | 45c | 99.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.99 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +7.1wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Los Angeles Angels | 51c | 82.24$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.92 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04eb…f50dbacked Los Angeles Angels | 55c | 80.07$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.04 | 187 | 54%101 W · 86 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Los Angeles Angels | 45c | 77.11$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.7 | 484 | 45.9%222 W · 262 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Los Angeles Angels | 56c | 53.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 569 | 46.9%267 W · 302 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb1…8436backed Houston Astros | 44c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 276 | 44.9%124 W · 152 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b65…6518backed Houston Astros | 44c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -5.2wins | -0.19per pick | 51cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3d9d…7d9ebacked Los Angeles Angels | 63c | 39.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 82 | 43.9%36 W · 46 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae1c…3678backed Los Angeles Angels | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 261 | 51%133 W · 128 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Los Angeles Angels | 31c | 32.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x48d5…59e2backed Los Angeles Angels | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Houston Astros | 43c | 25.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)this page
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Houston AstrosHouston Astros won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5Over won
- NRFI: Los Angeles Angels vs. Houston AstrosYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.