NFL · resolved market
Vikings vs. Packers: O/U 41.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x38e67e5b18035da976f688bc0031ba491361396208cbd689d27b3ab0fc1357f3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,965
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,060
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,965 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Over | 48c | 5,256$2,538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,538.36 | 224 | 50%112 W · 112 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 52c | 4,000$2,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,920 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 51c | 1,633$833 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800.16 | 206 | 61.2%126 W · 80 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 50c | 1,540$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$769.8 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf763…414fbacked Over | 50c | 1,214$601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$601.37 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Over | 49c | 1,204$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$589.96 | 240 | 56.7%136 W · 104 L | +19.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Under | 51c | 1,008$514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.92 | 446 | 52.9%236 W · 210 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d7…c17bbacked Over | 50c | 800$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 117 | 59.8%70 W · 47 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 50c | 609$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.23 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db6…da81backed Over | 50c | 600$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 116 | 40.5%47 W · 69 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50f8…5897backed Under | 51c | 486.58$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.58 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaabc…a190backed Over | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35b9…1d44backed Over | 48c | 238.33$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.4 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0298…93c4backed Over | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 283 | 37.8%107 W · 176 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 196 | 38.8%76 W · 120 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 343 | 49.3%169 W · 174 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…f8bebacked Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 194 | 59.3%115 W · 79 L | +15.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Under | 51c | 196$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.04 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 51c | 104.08$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacbe…85d4backed Over | 48c | 102$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.96 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2630…e941backed Over | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 66 | 50%33 W · 33 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x413c…1904backed Over | 50c | 70$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0338…4f11backed Under | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Over | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 130 | 65.4%85 W · 45 L | +17.2wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x480a…429fbacked Over | 49c | 25.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Vikings vs. Packers: O/U 41.5this page
- 1H Spread: Packers (-3.5)Packers won
- Spread: Packers (-6.5)Packers won
- Vikings vs. PackersPackers won
- Vikings vs. Packers: 1H MoneylinePackers won
- Vikings vs. Packers: 1H O/U 21.5Under won
- Vikings vs. Packers: O/U 40.5Under won
- Vikings vs. Packers: O/U 42.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.