NFL · resolved market
Vikings vs. Packers: O/U 40.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x52c1224e407c439e19daf0608f9b46d713f64976ac44e10cf77f1eebb09c156e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,862
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,850
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,862 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 52c | 3,313$1,723 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,723.11 | 473 | 48.4%229 W · 244 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 48c | 3,288$1,578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,709.56 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 47c | 3,094$1,449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,645.27 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb2…a656backed Over | 53c | 1,887$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.11 | 140 | 35%49 W · 91 L | -12.0wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 46c | 823.23$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.1 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Over | 53c | 754.72$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 163 | 46%75 W · 88 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04eb…36a7backed Over | 55c | 272.73$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 193 | 61.7%119 W · 74 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Over | 53c | 258.33$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.91 | 176 | 48.9%86 W · 90 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x387c…9188backed Under | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 51c | 199.68$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.06 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Under | 47c | 192$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.76 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Over | 53c | 191.64$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.57 | 60 | 30%18 W · 42 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5dd…b094backed Over | 55c | 180$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 94 | 43.6%41 W · 53 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2630…e941backed Over | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 66 | 50%33 W · 33 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Over | 55c | 98$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.9 | 533 | 48.4%258 W · 275 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 45c | 98$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.9 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76dc…28f4backed Over | 54c | 94.44$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -3.7wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Over | 51c | 49.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 297 | 51.5%153 W · 144 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f6e…6a74backed Over | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 121 | 48.8%59 W · 62 L | -10.7wins | -0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa362…e81cbacked Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480a…429fbacked Under | 49c | 25.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.01 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0011…74f0backed Under | 49c | 24.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 65 | 41.5%27 W · 38 L | -7.0wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x66a3…f56bbacked Over | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Vikings vs. Packers: O/U 40.5this page
- 1H Spread: Packers (-3.5)Packers won
- Spread: Packers (-6.5)Packers won
- Vikings vs. PackersPackers won
- Vikings vs. Packers: 1H MoneylinePackers won
- Vikings vs. Packers: 1H O/U 21.5Under won
- Vikings vs. Packers: O/U 41.5Under won
- Vikings vs. Packers: O/U 42.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.