Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Virginia Tech Hokies vs. Virginia Cavaliers: O/U 146.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x38ea5c919b76395ccd8b453d84dec498fa03f7b8e6ab12a6eabf08488ba0e93e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,369
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,369 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 46c | 9,257$4,287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,969.67 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ec1…057cbacked Under | 54c | 9,229$4,956 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,956.49 | 89 | 57.3%51 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 56c | 176.9$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.75 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Under | 51c | 123.9$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.19 | 2,003 | 53.7%1,076 W · 927 L | +101.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 55c | 123.89$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.16 | 3,380 | 49.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L | +30.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Over | 48c | 104.31$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.15 | 1,296 | 45.1%584 W · 712 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Under | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.05 | 605 | 51.4%311 W · 294 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93e3…e590backed Over | 49c | 52.28$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.66 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | -9.9wins | -0.18per pick | 41cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Under | 51c | 42.81$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.86 | 627 | 53%332 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Over | 46c | 39.65$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.41 | 612 | 44.9%275 W · 337 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x971c…f72cbacked Under | 56c | 32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe825…39b7backed Over | 49c | 30.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfda1…454fbacked Over | 49c | 30.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29aa…e4eabacked Over | 49c | 30.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.4wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x47b8…76f2backed Over | 45c | 30.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.85 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Over | 46c | 30.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.54 | 586 | 52.9%310 W · 276 L | +23.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1121…6604backed Under | 51c | 28.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 300 | 50.7%152 W · 148 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Under | 51c | 28.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 485 | 51.1%248 W · 237 L | +15.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 57c | 28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 848 | 54.5%462 W · 386 L | +32.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe276…a85bbacked Under | 54c | 27.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 225 | 44.9%101 W · 124 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6436…aa37backed Over | 49c | 20.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.46 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | -5.9wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb28a…ba10backed Over | 49c | 20.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.46 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x784f…7593backed Over | 49c | 20.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.46 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43e7…80d0backed Over | 49c | 20.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.46 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Under | 50c | 20.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 2,124 | 50.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Under | 62c | 16.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +22%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Virginia Tech Hokies vs. Virginia Cavaliers: O/U 146.5this page
- Spread: Virginia Cavaliers (-11.5)Virginia Tech Hokies won
- Virginia Tech Hokies vs. Virginia CavaliersVirginia Cavaliers won
- Virginia Tech Hokies vs. Virginia Cavaliers: O/U 144.5Over won
- Virginia Tech Hokies vs. Virginia Cavaliers: O/U 145.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.