Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Virginia Cavaliers (-11.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5082e0d2a1c237a4af07c1bd4b017043e8d1a6ee8cdb1d68fdc0f93dbedd842a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Virginia Tech Hokiesof Virginia Cavaliers, Virginia Tech Hokies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,963
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,963 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Virginia Cavaliers | 49c | 715.5$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.25 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Virginia Tech Hokies | 52c | 476.57$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.75 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Virginia Cavaliers | 50c | 426.03$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.04 | 1,397 | 52.7%736 W · 661 L | +26.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa4…9a4cbacked Virginia Tech Hokies | 51c | 399.99$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Virginia Cavaliers | 49c | 303.44$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.69 | 1,251 | 50.6%633 W · 618 L | +12.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa097…fba7backed Virginia Tech Hokies | 53c | 198.26$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.76 | 91 | 48.4%44 W · 47 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72a1…1950backed Virginia Tech Hokies | 52c | 190.63$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.5 | 338 | 55%186 W · 152 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Virginia Tech Hokies | 49c | 188.84$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.98 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Virginia Cavaliers | 49c | 148.69$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.86 | 1,162 | 55.2%641 W · 521 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f34…94d0backed Virginia Tech Hokies | 52c | 133.44$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.05 | 116 | 54.3%63 W · 53 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf48d…fe48backed Virginia Cavaliers | 48c | 105$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 126 | 49.2%62 W · 64 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Virginia Cavaliers | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1,070 | 46.9%502 W · 568 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Virginia Tech Hokies | 50c | 99.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.56 | 828 | 46.1%382 W · 446 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Virginia Tech Hokies | 51c | 98.03$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.03 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x292e…172cbacked Virginia Cavaliers | 49c | 93.05$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.59 | 833 | 50.2%418 W · 415 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0f…48fdbacked Virginia Tech Hokies | 50c | 65.42$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.49 | 265 | 50.6%134 W · 131 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Virginia Cavaliers | 51c | 39.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 627 | 53%332 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Virginia Tech Hokies | 49c | 39.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.39 | 349 | 52.1%182 W · 167 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Virginia Cavaliers (-11.5)this page
- Virginia Tech Hokies vs. Virginia CavaliersVirginia Cavaliers won
- Virginia Tech Hokies vs. Virginia Cavaliers: O/U 144.5Over won
- Virginia Tech Hokies vs. Virginia Cavaliers: O/U 145.5Over won
- Virginia Tech Hokies vs. Virginia Cavaliers: O/U 146.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.