Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on April 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x38fb2cdf569a63c16639d1bca6993e17c2dfca5c925d03bc10c107cc6739a992
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,528
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,217
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,528 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaff8…935abacked Yes | 0c | 5,424$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb1…7318backed Yes | 23c | 999.96$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.99 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -24%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa58f…ee1abacked No | 76c | 893.39$678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.7 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9d…246ebacked Yes | 42c | 384.05$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.09 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 70c | 343.1$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.83 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 35c | 224.48$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.24 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 20c | 222.83$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.22 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6536…0cf6backed Yes | 15c | 196.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.27 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 29c | 168.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.71 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 73c | 142.82$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.66 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 30c | 132.31$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.14 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 63c | 128.62$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.76 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 66c | 119.1$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.92 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 75c | 116.57$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 29c | 116.43$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe272…ac63backed Yes | 27c | 115.27$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.62 | 205 | 34.1%70 W · 135 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 62c | 114.23$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.16 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 28c | 81.45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked No | 67c | 78.33$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.85 | 277 | 56%155 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe708…4e48backed Yes | 37c | 75.6$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.12 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5ab…5429backed Yes | 32c | 73.49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 32c | 72.7$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.26 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 36c | 62.93$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.48 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 36c | 59.39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.43 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b7…91f8backed No | 63c | 59.23$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.76 | 77 | 77.9%60 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 75cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 38c | 59.06$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.69 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb3…8d26backed Yes | 24c | 58.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 30c | 55.82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.71 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 34c | 55.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe82a…db8dbacked Yes | 24c | 53.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb6…4fb4backed Yes | 39c | 52.9$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 65c | 52.74$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.44 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc72…ad49backed No | 77c | 51.79$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.91 | 115 | 65.2%75 W · 40 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe18c…dfa5backed No | 80c | 49.07$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90b7…148cbacked Yes | 31c | 48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 93 | 31.2%29 W · 64 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 30c | 46.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed No | 65c | 45.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.02 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5da1…a003backed Yes | 32c | 44.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 171 | 38.6%66 W · 105 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…e353backed No | 77c | 42.97$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab8a…8dc7backed Yes | 37c | 42.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 133 | 22.6%30 W · 103 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 26c | 39.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1df8…6c4ebacked Yes | 29c | 38.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 67c | 37.29$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 35c | 33.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 43c | 33.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8688…4ac3backed Yes | 40c | 32.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | +6.2wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed No | 78c | 31.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.12 | 229 | 59.8%137 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf3…f535backed Yes | 40c | 30.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -4.6wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…8623backed No | 69c | 30.28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.39 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a1…9f22backed Yes | 40c | 29.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed5b…a76abacked Yes | 40c | 29.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 190 | 47.4%90 W · 100 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71f3…0b6cbacked No | 65c | 28.88$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 76c | 27.21$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.53 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd342…1ad9backed No | 76c | 25.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed30…87b1backed No | 76c | 25.43$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 185 | 49.7%92 W · 93 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed No | 60c | 23.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 65c | 22.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 51c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 68c | 20.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x142a…a44abacked No | 63c | 18.06$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.61 | 179 | 45.3%81 W · 98 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc377…593fbacked No | 77c | 15.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.71 | 139 | 64%89 W · 50 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on April 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C or below on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on April 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C or higher on April 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.