Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on April 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3d07ff8c47aceb915d1b774d181e29799eadc44a37277a70b52dbb99ef581fc1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,123
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,516
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,123 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x06f1…c46fbacked Yes | 0c | 4,412$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce0…3dfdbacked Yes | 1c | 1,679$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7309…95bdbacked Yes | 12c | 488.19$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.76 | 111 | 24.3%27 W · 84 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78bc…617cbacked Yes | 6c | 456.4$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 8c | 454.65$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.13 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 7c | 363.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 8c | 295.1$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bad…b337backed Yes | 20c | 275.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.12 | 323 | 10.5%34 W · 289 L | +15.6wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 16c | 268.86$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.04 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 18c | 256.47$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.14 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 21c | 228.79$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.15 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54f9…9f4dbacked Yes | 5c | 228.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 230 | 7.8%18 W · 212 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 11c | 196.71$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…1c11backed Yes | 7c | 183.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 661 | 44.5%294 W · 367 L | +57.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba5…8434backed Yes | 22c | 172.61$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.71 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…6cb0backed Yes | 30c | 172.49$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.12 | 253 | 44.7%113 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 66c | 142.97$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.96 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 10c | 132.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d56…92e6backed Yes | 20c | 132.38$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.95 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ee…e1acbacked Yes | 35c | 128.13$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.1 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed Yes | 10c | 127.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfba1…2769backed Yes | 24c | 119.92$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.01 | 106 | 40.6%43 W · 63 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 17c | 114.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa1…a961backed No | 78c | 107.82$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.28 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 17c | 105.76$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc76b…c745backed Yes | 18c | 102.12$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 12c | 90$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 14c | 85.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 21c | 77.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21f0…4740backed Yes | 32c | 72.38$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed Yes | 17c | 69.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 229 | 59.8%137 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 20c | 68.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed No | 76c | 63.95$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.14 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 23c | 58.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 26c | 49.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff8…935abacked Yes | 30c | 46.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbcce…65afbacked No | 79c | 45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 277 | 71.5%198 W · 79 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e6…aa6cbacked No | 66c | 36.7$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.56 | 119 | 77.3%92 W · 27 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 46c | 27.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…7825backed No | 75c | 15.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 289 | 54.3%157 W · 132 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 67c | 15.46$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.09 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff9…66cdbacked No | 73c | 13.71$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on April 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C or below on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on April 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C or higher on April 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.