TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on April 17?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$17,555
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$19,920

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,555 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa912…297fbacked No17c623.61$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.2263656.1%357 W · 279 L+1.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No37c504.18$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.5912,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed No4c470.8$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.551,78725.7%460 W · 1,327 L+132.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+50.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3334…69b0backed Yes74c420.14$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.6246444.4%206 W · 258 L-18.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked No15c308.97$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.9858422.8%133 W · 451 L-26.5wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-52.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No10c305.54$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.997,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x60cd…93f5backed Yes75c264.91$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.564257.1%24 W · 18 L-3.2wins-0.08per pick65cpaid-16.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0a19…3c95backed Yes30c237.49$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.2542857%244 W · 184 L+8.9wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb964…927fbacked No8c223.04$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.4218327.3%50 W · 133 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-11.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes67c209.32$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.565,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes52c204.24$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.6127047%127 W · 143 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea4a…39c8backed Yes40c201.16$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.322335.9%80 W · 143 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b50…c9babacked Yes61c174.23$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.145148.6%219 W · 232 L+21.0wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9bde…688fbacked No48c154.46$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.34250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-25.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85e8…9301backed Yes73c152.01$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.3511362.8%71 W · 42 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e57…ddc3backed Yes74c131.61$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.211040%4 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-46.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd06f…6719backed No74c122.51$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.0692028.7%264 W · 656 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes76c122.34$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.6425037.6%94 W · 156 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid+36.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes54c119.13$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.731,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2c7e…c08ebacked No78c112.69$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.0357038.1%217 W · 353 L-40.7wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-33%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No40c105.57$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.194,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf2e…c770backed Yes37c99.57$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.7839541.3%163 W · 232 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes23c95.16$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.263,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes57c93.2$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.8886420.1%174 W · 690 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-25.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a84…171fbacked Yes37c92.15$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.7725239.7%100 W · 152 L-0.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes27c90$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.73,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb7f…0abbbacked No60c88.27$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.7918948.1%91 W · 98 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-10.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd991…0133backed Yes48c87.7$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.62864.3%18 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick67cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd228…ea6fbacked Yes37c81.98$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.9322934.1%78 W · 151 L-8.4wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-13.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes27c81.38$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.539,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaad7…cf8fbacked No62c81.14$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.2786173.2%630 W · 231 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick72cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No27c78.11$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.4395852.5%503 W · 455 L+103.2wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes34c77.53$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.311,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ba5…8434backed Yes38c73.93$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.792343.5%10 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+11.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8103…23a1backed No27c73.04$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4857614.9%86 W · 490 L+14.1wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-7.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x47bb…bd87backed Yes52c71.49$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.63650%3 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes27c69.98$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.3960236.5%220 W · 382 L-2.4wins0.00per pick37cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes34c65.94$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.6374338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x90b7…148cbacked Yes39c63.99$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.049331.2%29 W · 64 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-13.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e24…7379backed Yes31c61.05$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.1245619.1%87 W · 369 L-11.8wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No51c60.1$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.729,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe18c…dfa5backed No39c59.48$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.493839.5%15 W · 23 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-8.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf92e…2e92backed Yes48c58.95$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.513135.5%11 W · 20 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-22.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb75…f496backed No22c56.09$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.126911.6%8 W · 61 L-0.3wins0.00per pick12cpaid+13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes36c55.31$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.4266926.2%175 W · 494 L-1.7wins0.00per pick26cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x59fe…14fdbacked No29c54.97$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9457232.9%188 W · 384 L-104.6wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-45.9%equal weight31-0.18 edge/pick
0xd51e…6465backed No65c53.72$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.9237533.6%126 W · 249 L-11.9wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-24.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2698…2941backed Yes61c53.52$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.931,01161.2%619 W · 392 L+14.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0838…64f6backed Yes32c52.92$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.1521052.4%110 W · 100 L+14.7wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+14%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5608…c0dbbacked Yes54c51.35$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.6219160.7%116 W · 75 L+11.6wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9f57…c3acbacked No57c50.54$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.77946.8%37 W · 42 L+4.0wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+20.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No64c50.1$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.065,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8eea…e285backed Yes51c50$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.541046.8%192 W · 218 L+57.4wins+0.14per pick33cpaid+58.9%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfeda…b697backed Yes55c50$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.58872.7%64 W · 24 L+7.4wins+0.08per pick64cpaid+10.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xeeac…2970backed No66c48.94$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.222532%8 W · 17 L-3.2wins-0.13per pick45cpaid-32%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbb7a…ed18backed No43c48.83$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.831,54416.3%252 W · 1,292 L+21.9wins+0.01per pick15cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes51c47.55$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.344945.9%206 W · 243 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfba1…2769backed Yes44c42.92$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.0410640.6%43 W · 63 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-14.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd206…f1b3backed Yes62c42.15$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.931346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b31…852cbacked No27c40.19$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8525742.4%109 W · 148 L+8.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x73d0…6972backed Yes56c39.35$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.3822959.8%137 W · 92 L+6.7wins+0.03per pick57cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfeb3…8d26backed Yes51c39.06$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.246950.7%35 W · 34 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5aa4…fc3dbacked Yes49c38.73$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.7527756%155 W · 122 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ec8…99d2backed No65c38.47$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.0183360.7%506 W · 327 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes58c38.13$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.0712,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes39c36.43$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.2319734%67 W · 130 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa054…a95dbacked Yes35c36.03$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.4739966.2%264 W · 135 L+33.6wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+20.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8688…4ac3backed Yes36c32.86$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.956048.3%29 W · 31 L+6.2wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+41.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No34c32$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.742,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x71f3…0b6cbacked No61c31.02$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.082263.6%14 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-9.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1a8…7e66backed Yes66c30.34$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.252147.6%10 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-16.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5617…8c67backed Yes59c29.1$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.997518.7%14 W · 61 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-19.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfcf3…f535backed Yes36c29.02$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.572832.1%9 W · 19 L-4.6wins-0.16per pick48cpaid-45.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xed5b…a76abacked Yes36c29.01$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.5619047.4%90 W · 100 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-6.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4676…b720backed No46c28.32$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0298160.6%594 W · 387 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5278…5306backed Yes60c27.25$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.9314941.6%62 W · 87 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8be9…845fbacked No73c24.11$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.596063.3%38 W · 22 L+3.9wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd7cf…7825backed No51c23.12$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7928954.3%157 W · 132 L-8.1wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5aa6…0062backed Yes64c22.51$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.022360.9%14 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick57cpaid-3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4264…1706backed Yes72c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.640871.8%293 W · 115 L-0.8wins0.00per pick72cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb537…14ccbacked No74c19.74$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6141460.1%249 W · 165 L-21.5wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-8.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x98e9…a2f8backed No58c17.68$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2611872.9%86 W · 32 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick69cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1824…4bd7backed No63c17.62$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8bab…72ddbacked No67c16.6$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.127561.3%46 W · 29 L-5.9wins-0.08per pick69cpaid-12.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6fd8…4ed3backed Yes74c15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.851752.9%9 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+25.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4167…f99abacked No73c14.6$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.651,03668.6%711 W · 325 L-33.9wins-0.03per pick72cpaid-4.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.