Other European Leagues · resolved market
Fatih Karagümrük SK vs. Fenerbahçe SK: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3903c7fa93d98f0057f108e224f37b5af97c8b500d8fff99d8942228c1d0dfcc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,478
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,478 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 10c | 5,333$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528.37 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 79c | 2,140$1,695 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.87 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x357b…0b65backed Under | 80c | 1,252$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.11 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 71cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Over | 22c | 1,250$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.97 | 134 | 32.1%43 W · 91 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +30%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 18c | 683.67$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.27 | 478 | 42.9%205 W · 273 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 16c | 619.6$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.2 | 435 | 46.7%203 W · 232 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff79…a52abacked Over | 28c | 617.65$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 371 | 49.6%184 W · 187 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…493bbacked Under | 74c | 400$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf715…bbf0backed Over | 20c | 375$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 41 | 24.4%10 W · 31 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c67…a813backed Under | 79c | 352.1$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.24 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 77cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Over | 36c | 339.06$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.56 | 223 | 33.2%74 W · 149 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 28c | 322.18$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.83 | 338 | 58.6%198 W · 140 L | +30.9wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 18c | 248.85$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.04 | 1,107 | 47.7%528 W · 579 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 14c | 214.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.04 | 398 | 50%199 W · 199 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 20c | 155$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 1,467 | 48%704 W · 763 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 19c | 125$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 1,711 | 48.3%827 W · 884 L | -18.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2841…8e0dbacked Over | 23c | 108.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 21c | 107.25$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.89 | 227 | 27.8%63 W · 164 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 16c | 92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 437 | 21.7%95 W · 342 L | -49.3wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe477…4befbacked Over | 12c | 88.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb0…466fbacked Over | 19c | 84.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…a9a8backed Under | 79c | 80$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 97 | 64.9%63 W · 34 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffe7…471dbacked Over | 21c | 71.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 318 | 60.4%192 W · 126 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Over | 15c | 65.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 105 | 50.5%53 W · 52 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Over | 19c | 53.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 1,159 | 60.7%703 W · 456 L | +68.5wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Under | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 80 | 55%44 W · 36 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 79c | 38.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 2,543 | 52.4%1,333 W · 1,210 L | +18.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdee3…6fe5backed Over | 36c | 29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90e0…ff4cbacked Under | 77c | 28.88$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.78 | 71 | 7%5 W · 66 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -89.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa658…f93ebacked Under | 77c | 28.57$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0466…b3a5backed Under | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -27%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb51f…b7dbbacked Under | 74c | 18.82$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.89 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Under | 67c | 18.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Under | 78c | 16.73$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.68 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd2…e809backed Under | 79c | 16.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fatih Karagümrük SK vs. Fenerbahçe SK: O/U 4.5this page
- Fatih Karagümrük SK vs. Fenerbahçe SK: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Fatih Karagümrük SK vs. Fenerbahçe SK: O/U 1.5Over won
- Fatih Karagümrük SK vs. Fenerbahçe SK: O/U 2.5Under won
- Fatih Karagümrük SK vs. Fenerbahçe SK: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Fatih Karagümrük SK (-1.5)Fatih Karagümrük SK won
- Spread: Fatih Karagümrük SK (-2.5)Fenerbahçe SK won
- Spread: Fenerbahçe SK (-1.5)Fatih Karagümrük SK won
- Spread: Fenerbahçe SK (-2.5)Fatih Karagümrük SK won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.