Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C or higher on July 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x39163bb1b5e3e9ea5b74bcb147d81c807357cee961fa711f838a9598327fef28
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,140
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,512
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,140 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 16c | 1,218$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.33 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed Yes | 5c | 563.22$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed Yes | 18c | 555.26$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.98 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 17c | 398.56$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.08 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 9c | 392.08$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.52 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed Yes | 6c | 337.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 12c | 283.18$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.99 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f70…891dbacked Yes | 15c | 281.26$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.56 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes | 13c | 214.47$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 15c | 180.51$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 75c | 176.46$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.7 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 6c | 165.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 76c | 164$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.67 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 14c | 163.21$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.33 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 12c | 137.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 15c | 135.03$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.59 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 25c | 117.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.79 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 18c | 117.2$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b98…8595backed Yes | 17c | 108.28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 299 | 13%39 W · 260 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 17c | 108.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38c7…1c86backed Yes | 14c | 101.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x104d…5abbbacked Yes | 14c | 101.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…8147backed Yes | 17c | 100.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | +7.6wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 33c | 99.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.7 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 11c | 99.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdab3…79b1backed Yes | 14c | 99.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f51…8b09backed Yes | 30c | 96.9$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.74 | 146 | 38.4%56 W · 90 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa925…6483backed No | 78c | 84.25$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.25 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 37c | 82.82$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.04 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9e…251fbacked Yes | 18c | 56.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +16.0wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x13ca…1b86backed No | 68c | 56.21$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.91 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 20c | 55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 39c | 50.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 40c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x463a…af96backed Yes | 42c | 37.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…a32abacked No | 73c | 36.23$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 216 | 33.8%73 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 78c | 29.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbefc…58febacked No | 67c | 29.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 65 | 64.6%42 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc5f…018fbacked No | 80c | 25.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.03 | 80 | 28.8%23 W · 57 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 68c | 22.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.17 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 78c | 20.73$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 78c | 20.09$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 60c | 17.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.56 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 76c | 13.24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.21 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 79c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.74 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C or higher on July 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on July 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on July 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.