Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on July 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0c9e7f50f9e0bd21603e047aeab06efbe8f5f28db7d4f46dc3b2962c38e6ee29
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,662
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,665
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,662 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 21c | 711.99$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.32 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf4…f4c3backed Yes | 12c | 537.75$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.21 | 116 | 26.7%31 W · 85 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f70…891dbacked Yes | 23c | 414.56$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.64 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 79c | 295$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.95 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 7c | 230.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 73c | 211.04$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.29 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 76c | 175.53$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.83 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 79c | 173$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.33 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 15c | 165.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.17 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 74c | 164$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.02 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 79c | 148$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.08 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 24c | 145.78$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.45 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 19c | 116.7$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 22c | 106.97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.89 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaab7…dd3bbacked Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84e3…3dfdbacked No | 80c | 89.25$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 148 | 78.4%116 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc5f…018fbacked Yes | 36c | 86.04$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.96 | 80 | 28.8%23 W · 57 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 75c | 84.99$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.47 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 70$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 77c | 56.55$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.77 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 69c | 55.13$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcff7…2fb1backed Yes | 33c | 48.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 214 | 51.9%111 W · 103 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b98…8595backed Yes | 25c | 48.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 299 | 13%39 W · 260 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8e…cfaabacked Yes | 23c | 47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 190 | 39.5%75 W · 115 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x827d…233fbacked No | 65c | 45.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.94 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13ca…1b86backed No | 70c | 45.43$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.43 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 76c | 45.33$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 29c | 45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 79c | 44.28$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 76c | 43.21$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.37 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3069…c168backed Yes | 55c | 36.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 72c | 35.94$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 79c | 31.51$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 77c | 27.92$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 76c | 25.06$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.07 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7966…b251backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 143 | 59.4%85 W · 58 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 297 | 69.4%206 W · 91 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 66c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe54c…2c69backed No | 80c | 16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.25 | 255 | 60.8%155 W · 100 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.15 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on July 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on July 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C or higher on July 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.