Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on July 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x745ef76e5dd9af8a82c5c89d2608fb015667c6e802659614c02cc485492088b2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,325
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,247
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,325 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 80c | 632.13$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.41 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 11c | 544.2$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.51 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 36c | 489.6$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.13 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc5f…018fbacked Yes | 25c | 364.31$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.66 | 80 | 28.8%23 W · 57 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 31c | 332.92$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.04 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f70…891dbacked Yes | 65c | 303.49$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.33 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked No | 30c | 282.89$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.03 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 49c | 275.85$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.43 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 29c | 259.11$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.68 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 22c | 224.63$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.29 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes | 70c | 212.28$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.78 | 206 | 62.1%128 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed No | 19c | 199.59$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.14 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 45c | 187.97$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.54 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 76c | 185.18$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.05 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…e014backed No | 10c | 176.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 62c | 164$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.3 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffc5…67a5backed No | 9c | 164$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 21c | 157.4$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.8 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaab7…dd3bbacked Yes | 62c | 149.15$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.05 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 75c | 137.78$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.87 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 73c | 114.14$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.27 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed Yes | 31c | 111.14$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.14 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 30c | 107.58$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.46 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 44c | 107.13$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.47 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 43c | 101.66$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.75 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 271 | 29.2%79 W · 192 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 64c | 98.18$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.89 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed No | 19c | 90.47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 25c | 90.43$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.39 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 27c | 90$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.3 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 35c | 89.16$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.62 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e04…80babacked No | 23c | 84.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 22c | 73.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb5…dfcabacked Yes | 79c | 72$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.77 | 239 | 51%122 W · 117 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 22c | 70.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.87 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc9…bfbcbacked No | 75c | 66.82$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 185 | 65.4%121 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 22c | 66.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.83 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 31c | 66.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 25c | 65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0b98…8595backed Yes | 20c | 64.42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.34 | 299 | 13%39 W · 260 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked No | 22c | 61.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa925…6483backed Yes | 54c | 60.93$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.93 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 72c | 60$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.4 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 31c | 59.96$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.37 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3069…c168backed Yes | 35c | 57.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.07 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 21c | 56.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 26c | 53.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e02…ce11backed No | 75c | 53.51$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 32c | 50.68$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.58 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 67c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed No | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 72c | 47.68$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.33 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed No | 21c | 47.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 115 | 19.1%22 W · 93 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 24c | 47.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.82 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked No | 46c | 46.59$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.66 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 66c | 45.37$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.09 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…a32abacked Yes | 41c | 44.68$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.19 | 216 | 33.8%73 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2797…9bc0backed No | 42c | 43.87$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 181 | 42.5%77 W · 104 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 64c | 42.46$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.25 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd93e…7434backed No | 36c | 41.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 52c | 39.38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed No | 51c | 38.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…f89cbacked No | 31c | 34.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 245 | 69.8%171 W · 74 L | +30.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked No | 49c | 33.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x074e…b9d1backed Yes | 76c | 32.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe32a…a7f9backed Yes | 68c | 32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ad…9a0dbacked Yes | 56c | 31.61$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 234 | 63.7%149 W · 85 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 57c | 31.45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.51 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 59c | 31.07$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 77c | 30.14$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8f51…8b09backed Yes | 78c | 28.4$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.19 | 146 | 38.4%56 W · 90 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32a8…be9bbacked Yes | 76c | 26.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 86 | 67.4%58 W · 28 L | +10.6wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8e…cfaabacked Yes | 70c | 24.63$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 190 | 39.5%75 W · 115 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 52c | 23.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 54c | 21.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…a495backed Yes | 80c | 20.33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 72c | 18.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 73c | 16.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 74c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 74c | 14.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 77c | 13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on July 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C or higher on July 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.