Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on August 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x392a87d6c651ae76f2d67ebb806a65a8bf2fc7b75f7abaf51aa6d6ac8d8e1818
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,442
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,070
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,442 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 2c | 2,012$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.24 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe34d…41f0backed Yes | 9c | 1,210$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.48 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 10c | 1,049$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.67 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 21c | 864.69$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.05 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…8e07backed Yes | 2c | 717.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 202 | 50.5%102 W · 100 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4309…7456backed Yes | 18c | 503.57$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.85 | 161 | 26.1%42 W · 119 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 30c | 499.99$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.87 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa16…b066backed Yes | 12c | 499.98$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.63 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 17c | 480.12$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.51 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 76c | 414.07$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.32 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e71…afe6backed Yes | 24c | 404.32$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.8 | 272 | 26.5%72 W · 200 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f2…c000backed Yes | 15c | 333.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 15c | 308$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.72 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 67c | 305$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.24 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf888…9668backed Yes | 23c | 299.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6b…210ebacked Yes | 32c | 297.86$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.58 | 87 | 19.5%17 W · 70 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…8e3cbacked No | 78c | 287.66$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.14 | 78 | 62.8%49 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…b03cbacked No | 70c | 268.3$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.62 | 133 | 63.9%85 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 79c | 263.83$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.85 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc40…c5bbbacked Yes | 28c | 250$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.55 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 12c | 230$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.81 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 13c | 221$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.34 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf4df…e6cfbacked No | 70c | 210.61$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.09 | 138 | 62.3%86 W · 52 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf742…400ebacked Yes | 18c | 209.7$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.81 | 116 | 14.7%17 W · 99 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…4357backed Yes | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 208 | 32.7%68 W · 140 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 7c | 199.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 79c | 186.06$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.02 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb99b…b581backed No | 65c | 180$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Yes | 24c | 179.66$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.71 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 15c | 150.57$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.38 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 12c | 150$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97c5…018bbacked No | 74c | 132.25$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.18 | 46 | 65.2%30 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71ec…e48cbacked Yes | 8c | 129.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 99 | 21.2%21 W · 78 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c7…d291backed No | 68c | 120$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x951a…6866backed Yes | 21c | 119.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 12c | 105.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked No | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 230 | 60.9%140 W · 90 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc4…c720backed Yes | 30c | 99.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 14c | 99.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd97…bf49backed Yes | 29c | 99.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.31 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -5.2wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b8…b102backed Yes | 31c | 95.49$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.56 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 23c | 88$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.56 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 77c | 77.29$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.95 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 78c | 76.36$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.55 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf834…8a5fbacked Yes | 18c | 75.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1656…d340backed Yes | 18c | 70$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 67c | 66.78$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.79 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c3…f0a1backed Yes | 25c | 63.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 25cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 77c | 62.47$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.35 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2de6…b08bbacked No | 71c | 61.02$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.43 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d8a…8b1cbacked Yes | 37c | 60.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.61 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 22c | 57.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe037…8a91backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb216…e994backed Yes | 31c | 49.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 36c | 48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9053…fb1cbacked No | 77c | 39.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed No | 73c | 38$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e70…bb75backed Yes | 34c | 36.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +19%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 66c | 33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 74c | 31.98$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64a0…f6edbacked No | 78c | 22.73$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…b1f2backed No | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f22…e113backed No | 77c | 17.35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.25per pick | 67cpaid | -45%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on August 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on August 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on August 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.