Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on August 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe3155fb1bfe7a0343985bba195af86ee2b0739aea331f9de5305aec61597c5e7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,917
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,292
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,917 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 69c | 1,466$1,017 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.53 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 36c | 1,447$523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.12 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 65c | 899.82$586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.48 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83dd…1517backed Yes | 66c | 867.04$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.42 | 79 | 57%45 W · 34 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc40…c5bbbacked Yes | 73c | 800$587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 39c | 773.71$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.31 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 10c | 733.31$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.2 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6b…210ebacked Yes | 30c | 687.5$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$478.65 | 87 | 19.5%17 W · 70 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf742…400ebacked No | 4c | 686.45$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.09 | 116 | 14.7%17 W · 99 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…8e07backed No | 20c | 507.21$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.52 | 202 | 50.5%102 W · 100 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 32c | 461.21$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.35 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11c8…6f8fbacked No | 47c | 446.32$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 26c | 413.94$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.76 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 11c | 393.3$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf888…9668backed Yes | 75c | 386.68$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.04 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb99b…b581backed Yes | 53c | 379.97$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.88 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef6…92e4backed Yes | 43c | 376.3$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.3 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f52…895cbacked Yes | 57c | 338.4$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.12 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 43c | 331.12$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.42 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e71…afe6backed Yes | 65c | 311.28$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.71 | 272 | 26.5%72 W · 200 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 33c | 299.92$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.24 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 36c | 297.22$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.75 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 70c | 288.15$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.13 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 51c | 259.83$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.71 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked Yes | 64c | 254.99$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.6 | 230 | 60.9%140 W · 90 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c7…d291backed Yes | 24c | 239.99$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.59 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4af8…9188backed Yes | 53c | 235$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.6 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 41c | 228.55$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.47 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 53c | 221.09$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.29 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 69c | 214.8$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.83 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57f0…f45bbacked No | 39c | 214.41$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 69c | 203.5$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.61 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7374…38ffbacked No | 32c | 202.29$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.95 | 59 | 69.5%41 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 18c | 192.09$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.29 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 44c | 170.67$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.72 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 71c | 167.81$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.21 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 33c | 167.75$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.46 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 56c | 166.88$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.4 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 31c | 163.04$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.5 | 99 | 13.1%13 W · 86 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x951a…6866backed Yes | 29c | 160$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.6 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 24c | 159.43$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.84 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 24c | 142.27$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.26 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba5…c168backed No | 16c | 130$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 21c | 116$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd97…bf49backed No | 40c | 115.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.16 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -5.2wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 27c | 111.04$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.3 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 31c | 101.8$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.29 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc18…f73cbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29bd…b52cbacked Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.05 | 76 | 23.7%18 W · 58 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc4…c720backed No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64a0…f6edbacked Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 22c | 99.98$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.98 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 43c | 98.57$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.12 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 37c | 98.46$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.71 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 39c | 96.17$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.83 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 30c | 92.45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.69 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 55c | 83.02$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…dbaabacked Yes | 32c | 80$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.4 | 113 | 30.1%34 W · 79 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 31c | 80$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.2 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 79c | 75.14$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.02 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x142a…a44abacked No | 40c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 179 | 45.3%81 W · 98 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…875abacked Yes | 76c | 71.89$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.36 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 34c | 70.26$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.23 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf09f…1ca0backed No | 70c | 70$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 71cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 71c | 68.89$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.85 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7474…3db1backed Yes | 44c | 67.48$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.06 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf255…a6e8backed Yes | 74c | 65.79$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.11 | 82 | 69.5%57 W · 25 L | +8.7wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 45c | 65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.56 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 50c | 63.77$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.14 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed No | 65c | 63.07$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 71c | 63$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.73 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6568…cd3ebacked Yes | 35c | 62.25$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.72 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 31c | 59.82$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.27 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c71…66bfbacked Yes | 32c | 56.36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.16 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 32cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf834…8a5fbacked Yes | 41c | 54.94$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.49 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5aed…f5f0backed Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +92.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…dd8ebacked No | 77c | 52.14$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 163 | 48.5%79 W · 84 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72ed…203abacked Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb9…ce8fbacked No | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24d…947abacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe037…8a91backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 30c | 49.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.49 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 53c | 46.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.86 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x025e…bb39backed Yes | 31c | 45.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.4 | 105 | 54.3%57 W · 48 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 53c | 45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 36c | 44.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 28c | 44.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc04a…403abacked Yes | 64c | 43$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.35 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 68c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa087…91f7backed Yes | 31c | 35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.15 | 176 | 35.2%62 W · 114 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebe…a64dbacked Yes | 30c | 33.45$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 103 | 25.2%26 W · 77 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 58c | 32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea21…f753backed Yes | 63c | 22.24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | +18.8wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7c…34e7backed No | 72c | 21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on August 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on August 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.