Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on August 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcd73e1bfe9b8f5a4d5995bdc8141afaa4266c4cdbb32da6955b7bb3ac620b083
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,892
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,647
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,892 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 118 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 0c | 5,588$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 20c | 2,539$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.02 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 9c | 2,192$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.54 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…dd8ebacked No | 71c | 1,824$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$523.73 | 163 | 48.5%79 W · 84 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf888…9668backed Yes | 22c | 1,801$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.42 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe34d…41f0backed No | 57c | 1,592$910 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$681.66 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 73c | 1,515$1,099 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.99 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6b…210ebacked Yes | 21c | 765.46$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.48 | 87 | 19.5%17 W · 70 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 69c | 726.35$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.8 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc030…1398backed Yes | 2c | 700$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 42c | 698.13$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.19 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa16…b066backed No | 60c | 599.97$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.99 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd195…7b7cbacked Yes | 29c | 572.2$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.96 | 87 | 32.2%28 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2c…ecdcbacked Yes | 46c | 529.38$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.44 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6c…6025backed Yes | 25c | 494.38$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 7c | 492.74$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.35 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8a…6cf4backed No | 60c | 461.57$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.01 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83dd…1517backed Yes | 50c | 397.67$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 79 | 57%45 W · 34 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 76c | 363.39$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.52 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 28c | 360.87$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.3 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc4…c720backed Yes | 34c | 333.41$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.84 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4df…e6cfbacked No | 50c | 328.3$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.74 | 138 | 62.3%86 W · 52 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 6c | 314$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 77c | 304.65$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.82 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 23c | 300$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc40…c5bbbacked Yes | 38c | 300$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.95 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 11c | 299.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4309…7456backed Yes | 22c | 296.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.62 | 161 | 26.1%42 W · 119 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe19…1199backed Yes | 17c | 296.12$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.18per pick | 41cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 28c | 279.01$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.69 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 68c | 274.89$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.06 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f2…c000backed Yes | 38c | 265.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 77c | 265.3$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.18 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 32c | 258.44$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.36 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 71c | 256.97$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.68 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee1…3603backed Yes | 38c | 253.9$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.44 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 61c | 246.72$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.33 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef6…92e4backed Yes | 9c | 231.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9053…fb1cbacked Yes | 38c | 226.62$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.09 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0732…4098backed Yes | 26c | 213.65$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.8 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…b03cbacked No | 48c | 211.52$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.85 | 133 | 63.9%85 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x951a…6866backed Yes | 39c | 209.99$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.9 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 21c | 206.16$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.93 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x63b0…4cf2backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c0e…a5ccbacked Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 39cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb99b…b581backed Yes | 40c | 179.99$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.9 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…dbaabacked Yes | 27c | 175.11$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.97 | 113 | 30.1%34 W · 79 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 63c | 169.84$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.4 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 47c | 167.8$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.54 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4af8…9188backed Yes | 51c | 163.47$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.75 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2d6…11adbacked Yes | 44c | 157.91$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -38%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…c7a8backed Yes | 12c | 150$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf834…8a5fbacked Yes | 32c | 147.24$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.1 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 57c | 143.68$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.12 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 25c | 140$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 22c | 135.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.63 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c7…d291backed Yes | 41c | 130$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.3 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b8…b102backed Yes | 45c | 128.16$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.12 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e70…bb75backed Yes | 48c | 121.76$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +19%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed Yes | 17c | 119.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…8e07backed Yes | 11c | 110.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 202 | 50.5%102 W · 100 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 66c | 110.58$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.38 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e71…afe6backed Yes | 18c | 108.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 272 | 26.5%72 W · 200 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e1…e24abacked Yes | 18c | 106.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.73 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 52c | 104$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.92 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 24c | 101.84$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed No | 62c | 100.99$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.8 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 72c | 100.63$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.72 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…4357backed Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.44 | 208 | 32.7%68 W · 140 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc18…f73cbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed No | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29bd…b52cbacked Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.69 | 76 | 23.7%18 W · 58 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x033d…fc0fbacked No | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +4.8wins | +0.23per pick | 58cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6592…291ebacked No | 77c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd97…bf49backed Yes | 39c | 99.98$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.59 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -5.2wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 72c | 99.37$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.02 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9db…2ac6backed Yes | 41c | 97.8$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.1 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 41c | 94$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.54 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 39c | 92$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.09 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 24c | 88.35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f62…c3e0backed Yes | 63c | 83$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.29 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.42per pick | 67cpaid | -66%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 44c | 81.53$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.62 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 26c | 81.46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.93 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 16c | 78.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…2385backed Yes | 37c | 77.29$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e86…4c0fbacked Yes | 40c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 111 | 27%30 W · 81 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x142a…a44abacked No | 40c | 75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 179 | 45.3%81 W · 98 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb216…e994backed Yes | 43c | 71.61$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.77 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 50c | 70.37$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.29 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 72c | 65$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.19 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 41c | 60$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.7 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 60c | 59.5$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.92 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d8a…8b1cbacked Yes | 56c | 58.77$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.65 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57f0…f45bbacked No | 57c | 58.35$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.35 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4351…5463backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc24d…947abacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 78c | 49.62$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 37c | 48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on August 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on August 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on August 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.