Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on August 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x392c2cc63ca10ea67bd73b8047ab4b1aa62ab220fdedab4c7d3aefee05ee5ba3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,972
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,441
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,972 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fd1…d8f4backed Yes | 33c | 1,110$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.53 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 14c | 811.61$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.57 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 15c | 421.34$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.36 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…da78backed Yes | 15c | 370.39$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.8 | 265 | 33.2%88 W · 177 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 74c | 223$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.02 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 17c | 181.47$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.45 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 72c | 161.96$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.02 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 31c | 136.31$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 21c | 111.61$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 11c | 107$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 14c | 106.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 74c | 101$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.26 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 68c | 98.49$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.77 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b58…d734backed Yes | 35c | 97.95$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.8 | 155 | 34.2%53 W · 102 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 26c | 89$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.14 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 17c | 75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 24c | 55.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 66c | 54.98$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 70c | 53.51$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.85 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…35d0backed No | 76c | 52.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 80c | 46.2$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb280…daefbacked Yes | 34c | 44.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.28per pick | 39cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed No | 65c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 235 | 60%141 W · 94 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…0cc2backed No | 60c | 26.9$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.76 | 229 | 45.4%104 W · 125 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 70c | 26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 68c | 24.2$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaebb…9922backed No | 61c | 19.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 80c | 17.3$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.53 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e97…7773backed No | 65c | 16.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 122 | 71.3%87 W · 35 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 64c | 16.02$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 80c | 15.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.13 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on August 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on August 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on August 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.