TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on August 1?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$18,378
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$18,193

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,378 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes25c878.57$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$656.6763538.4%244 W · 391 L+12.2wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc9de…81d9backed Yes31c830.09$258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$571.9542036.4%153 W · 267 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+11.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x86d3…da78backed Yes33c793.11$261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$532.1526533.2%88 W · 177 L+13.9wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+0.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x938d…8674backed Yes22c738.4$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$579.1146733.4%156 W · 311 L+21.4wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+12%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes34c732.83$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$482.851,25025.4%317 W · 933 L+57.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9fd1…d8f4backed Yes24c626.54$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$474.424332.6%14 W · 29 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-19.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes35c595.88$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$388.6659923.5%141 W · 458 L-18.3wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-45.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3500…07f0backed Yes44c426$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24015527.7%43 W · 112 L-10.8wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-34.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2b58…d734backed Yes22c420.7$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327.5915534.2%53 W · 102 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No68c417$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.64,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No61c416.05$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.294,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No63c414.5$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.332,61759.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L-41.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x268f…bbd7backed Yes35c400$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2609938.4%38 W · 61 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes17c307.19$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.5810,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No57c306.28$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.43,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No62c301$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.455,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda07…62a0backed Yes37c247.38$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.9520133.3%67 W · 134 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-12.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes21c231.34$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.734,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes22c231.18$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.368,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd069…9599backed Yes78c212.83$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.882272.7%16 W · 6 L+4.0wins+0.18per pick55cpaid+31.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5a2b…c3cbbacked Yes9c209.78$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.7814222.5%32 W · 110 L-5.5wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-13.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7eb5…9400backed No61c200$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12152758.8%310 W · 217 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x90ae…2475backed Yes46c200$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10857150.4%288 W · 283 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No62c176.7$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.714,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No67c142.75$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.752,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d8a…94cbbacked Yes20c141$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.268949.4%44 W · 45 L-5.5wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-18.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes16c135.99$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.746,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes33c133.06$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.743,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xabff…6b73backed No66c120$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.25851.7%30 W · 28 L-0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No43c111.96$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.146,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4435…786fbacked Yes17c111.7$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.7197152.2%507 W · 464 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0982…24e3backed Yes32c101$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.6835137.9%133 W · 218 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0e0…016abacked No69c100$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$692065%13 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+22.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb55…ff0fbacked Yes32c100$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6815529%45 W · 110 L-9.7wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-27%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes18c97.19$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.95,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No71c97$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.574,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No60c91.33$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.212,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaddf…b8febacked No67c89.55$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6028666.8%191 W · 95 L+9.1wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes33c76.92$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.421,28532.8%422 W · 863 L+24.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No64c75.19$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.823,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe405…2fc3backed Yes37c67.99$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.72020%4 W · 16 L-2.1wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-46%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed Yes35c67.82$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.064,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7bbe…b95ebacked No65c65$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.2541966.6%279 W · 140 L+36.9wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+13.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed Yes45c65$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.752,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5787…1f86backed Yes31c63.71$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.7123560%141 W · 94 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x179e…2fe3backed Yes38c62.63$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.8310857.4%62 W · 46 L+0.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35c4…d144backed No69c60$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.141,25562.5%785 W · 470 L+99.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa047…4ffabacked No70c56.19$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.1576059.2%450 W · 310 L-15.6wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3dd1…557ebacked No49c56$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.261,16959.4%694 W · 475 L+30.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1894…a936backed Yes25c55.04$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.1366758%387 W · 280 L+48.0wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+11.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes24c51.92$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.2254335%190 W · 353 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x96e6…fecebacked Yes20c50$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4026142.1%110 W · 151 L+15.8wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+16%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf668…e47abacked No51c49.99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.518131.5%57 W · 124 L-6.9wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No63c47.83$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x956c…1c6ebacked Yes34c47.72$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.726045%27 W · 33 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2698…2941backed No76c40.95$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.011,01161.2%619 W · 392 L+14.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a97…395bbacked Yes28c40.73$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.3333628.9%97 W · 239 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No63c39.8$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.22,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No72c39.29$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.152,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xca1f…d282backed No76c36.5$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.611,72264%1,102 W · 620 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick65cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38a1…3154backed No74c35.71$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.572,06774.6%1,542 W · 525 L+23.8wins+0.01per pick73cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No61c34.41$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.853,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No74c32$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.684,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes34c30.65$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.235,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf33e…0ab8backed Yes45c30$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.519259.4%114 W · 78 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6cb1…0f6ebacked Yes45c30$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.52568%17 W · 8 L+2.1wins+0.08per pick60cpaid+16.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked No60c27.58$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.439262.5%23 W · 903 L-379.9wins-0.41per pick44cpaid-90.2%equal weight6-0.40 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No64c25.5$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.352,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x33ab…149bbacked No65c25.4$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5120569.8%143 W · 62 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick65cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No69c25.3$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.523,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc50c…3017backed No69c25$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2515258.6%89 W · 63 L-8.5wins-0.06per pick64cpaid-11%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x655c…4420backed Yes45c24$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.289557.2%512 W · 383 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x68af…2639backed Yes47c23.5$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.59048.9%44 W · 46 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No64c22.24$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.182,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No69c22.11$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1812,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No48c22$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.662,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a20…89d2backed No69c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.831766.9%212 W · 105 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb692…7c83backed No80c20$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1611770.9%83 W · 34 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick68cpaid+2.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a5c…767bbacked No69c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.85756.1%32 W · 25 L-7.3wins-0.13per pick69cpaid-18.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x5e50…c665backed No62c19.1$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.931855.6%10 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xced6…2dc1backed No64c18.46$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8128068.6%192 W · 88 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick70cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No80c17.17$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.742,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.