Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on August 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x393d7aef0363cf896d3842a946bbfe7f3e7348b7a70e0ecfbb38f475024201b7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,672
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,882
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,672 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 8c | 175.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 14c | 135.31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 66c | 133.67$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.79 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed No | 35c | 126.31$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.31 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 45c | 109.32$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.31 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 34c | 105.56$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.56 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x987f…b37dbacked Yes | 38c | 105$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.3 | 101 | 33.7%34 W · 67 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 27c | 101$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.36 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf12d…eeafbacked Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 167 | 33.5%56 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4572…5e94backed No | 60c | 83.44$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 55c | 81.46$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 33c | 71.52$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.55 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 24c | 70.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 65c | 70.91$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.11 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed Yes | 33c | 59.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.19 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 64c | 55$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c3…92fcbacked Yes | 73c | 54.82$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 176 | 49.4%87 W · 89 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b11…a02dbacked Yes | 75c | 53.01$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 75cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 54c | 48.11$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.15 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 53c | 38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.77 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 70c | 37$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.06 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c30…b668backed Yes | 42c | 36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed No | 56c | 35.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 58c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked No | 68c | 33.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.01 | 283 | 68.6%194 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b58…d734backed Yes | 39c | 33.44$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 155 | 34.2%53 W · 102 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 39c | 32.66$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.03 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x368c…9f72backed No | 66c | 29.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…8bfebacked Yes | 79c | 26.13$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.43 | 191 | 66.5%127 W · 64 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3a…8792backed Yes | 42c | 25.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 180 | 45.6%82 W · 98 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d17…32d8backed No | 66c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 136 | 55.1%75 W · 61 L | -13.4wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5e…35c9backed No | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | -13.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 45c | 23.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.09 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed Yes | 67c | 23.44$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 60c | 20.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 58c | 19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on August 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on August 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.