Space · resolved market
Will the Firefly Lander Successfully Land on the Moon on Sunday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x39493f0dcaad92b6abd963c366f6103338ce0f0e694e11ecdb2d9d6f6f24eb69
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Spaceevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,985
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,265
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,985 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Space is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Space | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcd45…47e0backed No | 0c | 42,221$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe932…0f05backed No | 11c | 2,248$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe81…5fe9backed No | 29c | 1,937$565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a3…5adabacked Yes | 70c | 1,250$875 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80c6…e3c1backed Yes | 76c | 393.1$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed No | 20c | 346.06$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.29 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x020b…d13cbacked Yes | 72c | 300$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84c2…c73cbacked No | 22c | 137.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24d2…92c5backed Yes | 80c | 125.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.25 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 21c | 114.02$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.61 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 39 | 10.3%4 W · 35 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c23…b248backed No | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.95 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.34per pick | 51cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d31…9862backed No | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff3…b24dbacked Yes | 78c | 59.34$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed No | 23c | 56.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf778…8cf9backed No | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Space and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.