Tennis · resolved market
Hangzhou Open: Valentin Royer vs Learner Tien
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x395d75b9c9c792ef13f8e4c2acaf6f2c69443d52a634229c71eebf1401495b91
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Royerof Royer, Tien
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,747
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,910
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,747 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2129…4222backed Royer | 50c | 5,042$2,511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,531.2 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…5bf6backed Tien | 40c | 4,000$1,580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,580 | 206 | 53.4%110 W · 96 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Royer | 58c | 2,601$1,517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,084.25 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Tien | 52c | 2,424$1,266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,265.64 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Royer | 62c | 1,368$842 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$526.79 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5a…7618backed Tien | 36c | 810$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.5 | 253 | 30%76 W · 177 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f9e…46b5backed Tien | 25c | 700$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf97…beb5backed Royer | 43c | 699.35$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.63 | 102 | 37.3%38 W · 64 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31ac…392cbacked Royer | 38c | 529.79$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.97 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…f5ffbacked Tien | 57c | 500$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Tien | 62c | 471.1$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.1 | 591 | 51.6%305 W · 286 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…62d8backed Royer | 28c | 359.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.29 | 383 | 48%184 W · 199 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Royer | 52c | 230$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.45 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe671…a682backed Royer | 37c | 200$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 576 | 45.5%262 W · 314 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa263…6cf0backed Tien | 28c | 181.79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 175 | 38.3%67 W · 108 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Tien | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 383 | 56.9%218 W · 165 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x328e…dc42backed Royer | 37c | 148$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.92 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Tien | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85e2…0980backed Tien | 69c | 102.9$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 145 | 46.2%67 W · 78 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…06c9backed Tien | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 260 | 45%117 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…ff34backed Tien | 60c | 90$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 121 | 34.7%42 W · 79 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Royer | 46c | 65.64$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.24 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Royer | 39c | 64.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.1 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6231…3f29backed Tien | 61c | 64.1$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.1 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Royer | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 629 | 52.1%328 W · 301 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5998…141cbacked Royer | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +4.9wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Tien | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 85 | 22.4%19 W · 66 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1242…8dfebacked Tien | 78c | 31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.