Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on February 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x395fc5e17ab10c7be4470bc70d3a20ee5a2ef2d719e386ffe3c3241adf6b1e32
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,248
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,471
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,248 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 7,416$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1824…571abacked Yes | 1c | 2,051$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…61e9backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 240 | 10%24 W · 216 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9d…06b0backed Yes | 9c | 699.92$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.99 | 187 | 27.3%51 W · 136 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 2c | 630.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf91d…d7cebacked Yes | 10c | 574.75$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.33 | 263 | 39.9%105 W · 158 L | +17.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa0cf…305ebacked Yes | 10c | 499.91$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.03 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x681b…d401backed Yes | 16c | 459.84$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.01 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7458…fa86backed Yes | 14c | 441.01$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.74 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 9c | 421.42$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.52 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 17c | 399.41$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.9 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 6c | 383.79$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.37 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 10c | 382.69$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.74 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a85…ae06backed Yes | 5c | 361.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3a3…3c17backed Yes | 12c | 317.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.16 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab60…ac53backed Yes | 22c | 262.97$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.79 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +236.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 22c | 223.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.63 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…87a9backed Yes | 6c | 220.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 464 | 23.5%109 W · 355 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf730…8a0abacked Yes | 9c | 218.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 11c | 207.73$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 13c | 201.24$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.86 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 8c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf68…c804backed Yes | 11c | 182.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…1af7backed Yes | 11c | 177.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 201 | 46.3%93 W · 108 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 9c | 169.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb422…b749backed Yes | 12c | 165.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 15c | 140.79$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed Yes | 15c | 133.55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 9c | 132.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe39f…b4c2backed Yes | 17c | 117.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 14c | 113.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 16c | 110$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 10c | 105.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 16c | 100.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 206 | 31.6%65 W · 141 L | -23.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd555…fdbabacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b5…bef4backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf864…496fbacked Yes | 18c | 95.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 96 | 43.8%42 W · 54 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e43…5fc9backed Yes | 19c | 89.79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc3…7d41backed Yes | 18c | 88.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 73 | 23.3%17 W · 56 L | -6.7wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc802…7385backed Yes | 15c | 79.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ad…3ad7backed Yes | 25c | 76.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed Yes | 18c | 61.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on February 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on February 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on February 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C or higher on February 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 7°C on February 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on February 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.