Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on February 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9f3109849e026b4ba12154e3a65171c27db40d58f516e15b263053b01adc5e72
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,384
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,189
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,384 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 128 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 191 | 1%2 W · 189 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc537…f385backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 1cpaid | +1,328.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec3a…a709backed Yes | 79c | 952.48$751 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$751.34 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24dd…12afbacked No | 57c | 601.35$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.58 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0cf…305ebacked Yes | 43c | 500$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.57 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc97…da82backed Yes | 51c | 490.68$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 52c | 466.36$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.98 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…947bbacked No | 37c | 433.93$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.96 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +17.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07f6…2ed5backed Yes | 45c | 425.63$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.69 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 69c | 409.92$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.18 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…81aabacked No | 35c | 336.4$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.61 | 270 | 79.3%214 W · 56 L | +52.5wins | +0.19per pick | 60cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xa3a3…3c17backed Yes | 31c | 318$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.58 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8278…9464backed No | 23c | 304.24$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.54 | 132 | 50%66 W · 66 L | +10.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3950…e272backed Yes | 64c | 281.08$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.3 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9d…06b0backed No | 42c | 251.77$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.36 | 187 | 27.3%51 W · 136 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x357d…0897backed Yes | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 48c | 249.58$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.75 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 54c | 227.81$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.56 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 52c | 209.97$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.76 | 114 | 36.8%42 W · 72 L | -12.2wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 60c | 203.32$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.55 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 8c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x483a…8832backed Yes | 74c | 200$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.64 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1816…06e9backed Yes | 48c | 190$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.2 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.29per pick | 58cpaid | -46%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 57c | 187.86$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.68 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 70c | 187$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.99 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 53c | 172.85$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.87 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a96…b81abacked No | 50c | 164.03$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.01 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44b5…11a3backed Yes | 54c | 153.02$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.68 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 17c | 150$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 55c | 142$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.19 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No | 24c | 129.55$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.71 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 50c | 126.39$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.2 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a8…12eabacked Yes | 77c | 124.09$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.3 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 40c | 118.89$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.82 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc3…7d41backed Yes | 57c | 117.92$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.72 | 73 | 23.3%17 W · 56 L | -6.7wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…3d55backed No | 32c | 116.68$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.8 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +3.0wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf730…8a0abacked Yes | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 61c | 112.14$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.94 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xef0f…1dc9backed Yes | 44c | 109.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 106 | 50%53 W · 53 L | +11.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +27%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 48c | 105.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed Yes | 46c | 103.48$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 47c | 101.94$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.23 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed Yes | 57c | 101.41$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.55 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes | 42c | 100.64$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.22 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 236 | 33.1%78 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x386a…f453backed Yes | 51c | 98.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.23per pick | 44cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 31c | 97.65$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.1 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd555…fdbabacked Yes | 40c | 93.08$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.23 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 55c | 87.12$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.9 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd09a…a603backed Yes | 51c | 87.04$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 114 | 36.8%42 W · 72 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf91d…d7cebacked Yes | 60c | 86.45$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.77 | 263 | 39.9%105 W · 158 L | +17.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe39f…b4c2backed Yes | 47c | 85.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x162e…986bbacked No | 55c | 83.82$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.47 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe33b…6de8backed Yes | 45c | 82.62$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.15 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda89…8a6cbacked No | 33c | 80.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.55 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed No | 58c | 80.23$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.82 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 64c | 79.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.3 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7e…78b1backed Yes | 69c | 78.88$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.66 | 164 | 65.2%107 W · 57 L | +18.9wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 44c | 75.8$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.41 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 48c | 72.08$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.53 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed No | 14c | 71.56$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.54 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 61c | 69.35$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.14 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1436…3e11backed Yes | 42c | 62.53$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.37 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x812a…6197backed Yes | 70c | 59.78$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…873cbacked Yes | 62c | 58.94$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.46 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 47c | 57.81$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.98 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa29f…b607backed Yes | 54c | 57.09$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 45c | 56.36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.17 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf82b…8e81backed No | 59c | 55.06$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.33 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 46c | 55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.55 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e0d…e79cbacked Yes | 47c | 54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.38 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81ed…5cd7backed Yes | 39c | 53.51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1382…7820backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 147 | 36.1%53 W · 94 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d6…8a40backed No | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -4.9wins | -0.22per pick | 68cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…98a3backed No | 45c | 48.88$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.88 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…1a57backed Yes | 51c | 48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 55c | 47.13$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.35 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe00b…f8a3backed Yes | 46c | 46.04$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.18 | 103 | 54.4%56 W · 47 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xced7…970dbacked No | 63c | 46.02$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…3a88backed Yes | 55c | 45.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…1af7backed No | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 201 | 46.3%93 W · 108 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac6…b663backed No | 56c | 44.58$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.61 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaed7…a541backed Yes | 47c | 44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3949…1c3ebacked No | 45c | 43.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.04 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 57c | 43.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9417…28a3backed No | 69c | 43.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.49 | 81 | 39.5%32 W · 49 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x231e…9297backed Yes | 50c | 43.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.68 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c6…c9b8backed Yes | 59c | 42.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed No | 49c | 41.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.02 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6371…fc91backed No | 44c | 38.46$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.69 | 98 | 36.7%36 W · 62 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeccd…d100backed No | 54c | 37.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.34 | 131 | 22.1%29 W · 102 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4986…aacbbacked Yes | 57c | 35.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x364c…2e92backed Yes | 45c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e49…d68bbacked Yes | 67c | 33.61$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d4…a31ebacked Yes | 71c | 33.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.59 | 166 | 51.2%85 W · 81 L | +10.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 43c | 33.37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.02 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 38c | 33.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on February 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on February 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on February 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C or higher on February 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 7°C on February 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on February 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.