TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on February 16?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$41,384
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$49,189

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,384 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 128 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x19e1…976dbacked Yes1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101911%2 W · 189 L+0.1wins0.00per pick1cpaid+4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc537…f385backed Yes1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick1cpaid+1,328.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec3a…a709backed Yes79c952.48$751 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$751.345451.9%28 W · 26 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x24dd…12afbacked No57c601.35$343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.585846.6%27 W · 31 L+3.9wins+0.07per pick40cpaid-25.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa0cf…305ebacked Yes43c500$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.572339.1%9 W · 14 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc97…da82backed Yes51c490.68$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25011646.6%54 W · 62 L-0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes52c466.36$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.981,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0081…947bbacked No37c433.93$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.9631649.7%157 W · 159 L+17.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x07f6…2ed5backed Yes45c425.63$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.693531.4%11 W · 24 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick32cpaid+23.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x584e…090fbacked Yes69c409.92$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.1847834.3%164 W · 314 L+22.0wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+11.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2d0f…81aabacked No35c336.4$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.6127079.3%214 W · 56 L+52.5wins+0.19per pick60cpaid+30.3%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0xa3a3…3c17backed Yes31c318$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.583333.3%11 W · 22 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+13.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8278…9464backed No23c304.24$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.5413250%66 W · 66 L+10.0wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+1.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3950…e272backed Yes64c281.08$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.3742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick55cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd9d…06b0backed No42c251.77$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.3618727.3%51 W · 136 L+9.1wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+20.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x357d…0897backed Yes40c250$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004037.5%15 W · 25 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-21.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d77…a694backed No48c249.58$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.751,16057.3%665 W · 495 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd06f…6719backed Yes54c227.81$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.5692028.7%264 W · 656 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed Yes52c209.97$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.7611436.8%42 W · 72 L-12.2wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-29.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes60c203.32$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.554,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d72…8e62backed Yes8c200$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151,8178.1%148 W · 1,669 L-1.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x483a…8832backed Yes74c200$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.641540%6 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick46cpaid+19.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1816…06e9backed Yes48c190$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.2728.6%2 W · 5 L-2.0wins-0.29per pick58cpaid-46%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes57c187.86$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.681,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes70c187$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.9995933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No53c172.85$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.873,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a96…b81abacked No50c164.03$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.016949.3%34 W · 35 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-8.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x44b5…11a3backed Yes54c153.02$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.683342.4%14 W · 19 L-2.1wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-29.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd229…fcd6backed Yes17c150$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.51,24216.7%207 W · 1,035 L-22.0wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa912…297fbacked No55c142$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.1963656.1%357 W · 279 L+1.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No24c129.55$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.7134219.9%68 W · 274 L+18.6wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+2.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x672f…13ccbacked Yes50c126.39$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.233058.8%194 W · 136 L+10.8wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd4a8…12eabacked Yes77c124.09$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.34850%24 W · 24 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No40c118.89$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.822,82311.2%316 W · 2,507 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2bc3…7d41backed Yes57c117.92$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.727323.3%17 W · 56 L-6.7wins-0.09per pick33cpaid-46.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4d8e…3d55backed No32c116.68$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.81080%8 W · 2 L+3.0wins+0.30per pick50cpaid+55.2%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0xf730…8a0abacked Yes43c116.28$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502433.3%8 W · 16 L-2.9wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-31.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes61c112.14$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.9412,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xef0f…1dc9backed Yes44c109.99$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.410650%53 W · 53 L+11.0wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+27%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes48c105.1$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a42…8da8backed Yes46c103.48$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4838840.7%158 W · 230 L-14.9wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-15.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf7fe…1e42backed No47c101.94$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.2334457%196 W · 148 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8781…88c0backed Yes57c101.41$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.5532548.6%158 W · 167 L+11.8wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes42c100.64$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.2228737.6%108 W · 179 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a38…ada9backed Yes35c100$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3523633.1%78 W · 158 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9469…6d18backed No30c100$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7095942.4%407 W · 552 L+84.9wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+27.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes53c100$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5332444.4%144 W · 180 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x386a…f453backed Yes51c98.57$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501421.4%3 W · 11 L-3.2wins-0.23per pick44cpaid-55.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked No31c97.65$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.13,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd555…fdbabacked Yes40c93.08$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.231643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-17.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No55c87.12$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.97,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd09a…a603backed Yes51c87.04$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4411436.8%42 W · 72 L-6.1wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-13%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf91d…d7cebacked Yes60c86.45$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.7726339.9%105 W · 158 L+17.2wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+22.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe39f…b4c2backed Yes47c85.97$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403432.4%11 W · 23 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x162e…986bbacked No55c83.82$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.477055.7%39 W · 31 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-16.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe33b…6de8backed Yes45c82.62$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.155530.9%17 W · 38 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+20.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda89…8a6cbacked No33c80.99$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.551637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf05b…d0b7backed No58c80.23$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.8229642.9%127 W · 169 L+19.5wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+12.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes64c79.11$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.360851.2%311 W · 297 L-24.0wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3a7e…78b1backed Yes69c78.88$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.6616465.2%107 W · 57 L+18.9wins+0.11per pick54cpaid+27.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes44c75.8$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.411,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked Yes48c72.08$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.5359121.5%127 W · 464 L-30.1wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-46.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1838…29b4backed No14c71.56$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.5496313.7%132 W · 831 L+33.9wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+35.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3681…4e48backed No61c69.35$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.141,37556%770 W · 605 L+25.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1436…3e11backed Yes42c62.53$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.371136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-23.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x812a…6197backed Yes70c59.78$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.65839.7%23 W · 35 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+33.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8fe7…873cbacked Yes62c58.94$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.461936.8%7 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-16.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7943…27a1backed Yes47c57.81$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.9832044.7%143 W · 177 L+9.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa29f…b607backed Yes54c57.09$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes45c56.36$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.1717,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf82b…8e81backed No59c55.06$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.332245.5%10 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-26.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff74…5de4backed Yes46c55$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.5565934.1%225 W · 434 L+36.6wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5e0d…e79cbacked Yes47c54$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.38580%4 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick64cpaid+23.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x81ed…5cd7backed Yes39c53.51$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.01250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+5.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x1382…7820backed Yes42c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2114736.1%53 W · 94 L-6.2wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-10.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9d3e…c49ebacked No50c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251,11065%722 W · 388 L+38.1wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe5d6…8a40backed No63c50$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.52245.5%10 W · 12 L-4.9wins-0.22per pick68cpaid-31.4%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x4bdf…98a3backed No45c48.88$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.888549.4%42 W · 43 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3636…1a57backed Yes51c48$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.488551.8%44 W · 41 L+7.2wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+21.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No55c47.13$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.352,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe00b…f8a3backed Yes46c46.04$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.1810354.4%56 W · 47 L+6.7wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+17.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xced7…970dbacked No63c46.02$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.032100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+42.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f9e…3a88backed Yes55c45.08$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7cde…1af7backed No56c44.64$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.6420146.3%93 W · 108 L-5.1wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-24.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ac6…b663backed No56c44.58$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.616741.8%28 W · 39 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-35.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaed7…a541backed Yes47c44$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.68757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+25.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3949…1c3ebacked No45c43.68$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.04425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-44.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes57c43.6$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.8454037.4%202 W · 338 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-13.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9417…28a3backed No69c43.5$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.498139.5%32 W · 49 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-37.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x231e…9297backed Yes50c43.33$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.68728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-54.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x16c6…c9b8backed Yes59c42.68$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252123.8%5 W · 16 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-37.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5368…2d62backed No49c41.02$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.021,80427.4%494 W · 1,310 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6371…fc91backed No44c38.46$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.699836.7%36 W · 62 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-20.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeccd…d100backed No54c37.51$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.3413122.1%29 W · 102 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-38.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4986…aacbbacked Yes57c35.07$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204833.3%16 W · 32 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-22.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x364c…2e92backed Yes45c35$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.92030%6 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-14%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e49…d68bbacked Yes67c33.61$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5710%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe1d4…a31ebacked Yes71c33.46$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5916651.2%85 W · 81 L+10.4wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No43c33.37$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.0258349.4%288 W · 295 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes38c33.32$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.538,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.