Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on February 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd45dd2f291008f38d29c79e566bfeec08f41f973f16a95f22b63514187ed9fb0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,007
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,767
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,007 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 133 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 33c | 1,925$631 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,293.55 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…61e9backed Yes | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800 | 240 | 10%24 W · 216 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed No | 2c | 720$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 73 | 13.7%10 W · 63 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -68%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1824…571abacked No | 71c | 631.21$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.87 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7458…fa86backed Yes | 65c | 626$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.06 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…81aabacked No | 5c | 600$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 270 | 79.3%214 W · 56 L | +52.5wins | +0.19per pick | 60cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 29c | 442.27$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.66 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 36c | 381.66$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.77 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 36c | 330.56$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.67 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x357d…0897backed Yes | 31c | 322.98$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.86 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 22c | 322.03$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.3 | 183 | 16.4%30 W · 153 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 17c | 314.5$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.71 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec15…3942backed Yes | 38c | 307.02$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.4 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 30c | 303.43$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.14 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2742…1f7abacked Yes | 29c | 287.55$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.31 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +17.5wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9864…b2ebbacked Yes | 35c | 281.79$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.79 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf91d…d7cebacked Yes | 15c | 281.09$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.02 | 263 | 39.9%105 W · 158 L | +17.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa0cf…305ebacked Yes | 27c | 278.73$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.36 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 25c | 276.45$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.32 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 39c | 270.71$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.02 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 19c | 264.2$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.92 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9d…06b0backed Yes | 29c | 257.81$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.6 | 187 | 27.3%51 W · 136 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 12c | 251.27$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.37 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 249.53$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb881…20a1backed Yes | 41c | 246.55$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.55 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 67c | 238.22$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.69 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 16c | 218.53$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.71 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e4d…bacebacked Yes | 44c | 204.32$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.32 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 28c | 201.2$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.84 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74be…d9dbbacked Yes | 21c | 200$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158 | 94 | 29.8%28 W · 66 L | +7.1wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed Yes | 22c | 199.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.99 | 236 | 33.1%78 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 35c | 195.83$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.76 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed Yes | 40c | 173$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.35 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 13c | 150$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.5 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 68c | 146.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.17 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8278…9464backed Yes | 38c | 137.9$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.36 | 132 | 50%66 W · 66 L | +10.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3a3…3c17backed No | 73c | 136.92$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.32 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 73c | 131.14$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.14 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed No | 71c | 130.72$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.3 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 58c | 128.78$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 32c | 123$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.82 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…a709backed No | 65c | 117.17$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.87 | 92 | 60.9%56 W · 36 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed No | 67c | 114.37$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.66 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd892…5f0dbacked Yes | 36c | 111.39$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.08 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +67.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x187f…52b0backed Yes | 37c | 107.94$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +169.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e43…5fc9backed Yes | 36c | 102.46$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.1 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b5…bef4backed No | 73c | 99.99$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda89…8a6cbacked Yes | 39c | 99.34$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.48 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7340…c102backed Yes | 41c | 97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.26 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 21c | 89.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.66 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b1b…a70bbacked Yes | 39c | 86.43$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.83 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa306…9802backed No | 79c | 86$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.57 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 30c | 85.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.84 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3949…1c3ebacked No | 65c | 85.46$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.84 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd1…184cbacked Yes | 26c | 84.19$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.3 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44b5…11a3backed No | 71c | 84.07$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.77 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 31c | 79.22$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.84 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…947bbacked Yes | 25c | 78.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.79 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +17.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c4…1513backed Yes | 33c | 76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.92 | 143 | 38.5%55 W · 88 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9526…8f87backed Yes | 33c | 74.63$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.63 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed9…c127backed Yes | 25c | 70.59$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.94 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +5.3wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7d3e…534ebacked No | 76c | 68.08$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.74 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 23c | 66.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.58 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90c4…46d8backed Yes | 26c | 66.09$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.09 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c09…fa55backed No | 59c | 64.64$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.83 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 58cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa301…b4efbacked No | 78c | 60.71$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.35 | 53 | 60.4%32 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8de…cdc0backed Yes | 23c | 60.71$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 65 | 38.5%25 W · 40 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 42c | 59.9$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.74 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 63c | 58.42$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.85 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9417…28a3backed No | 75c | 56.65$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.65 | 81 | 39.5%32 W · 49 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd637…7617backed Yes | 39c | 55$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.4 | 135 | 33.3%45 W · 90 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3984…20e8backed Yes | 39c | 51.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.41 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.21per pick | 38cpaid | +69%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1382…7820backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 147 | 36.1%53 W · 94 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe170…3c0bbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 65c | 49.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.49 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d6…8a40backed No | 65c | 49.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.49 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -4.9wins | -0.22per pick | 68cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb422…b749backed No | 61c | 49.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…98a3backed No | 45c | 48.88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85b0…7c9abacked Yes | 33c | 46.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.47 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70db…afb2backed Yes | 46c | 46.06$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.09 | 77 | 37.7%29 W · 48 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe00b…f8a3backed Yes | 44c | 46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.7 | 103 | 54.4%56 W · 47 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…1af7backed No | 66c | 45.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 201 | 46.3%93 W · 108 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…3d55backed Yes | 42c | 42.04$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.48 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +3.0wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc3…7d41backed No | 72c | 41.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 73 | 23.3%17 W · 56 L | -6.7wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd09a…a603backed Yes | 34c | 41.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.73 | 114 | 36.8%42 W · 72 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 79c | 40.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.35 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45b1…fa5fbacked Yes | 27c | 40.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.73 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 27c | 40.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.42 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23ac…7cfebacked No | 68c | 40.03$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.39 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 34c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a1…9f22backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3271…cd33backed Yes | 37c | 39.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.3 | 135 | 31.1%42 W · 93 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf31d…a26dbacked Yes | 41c | 39.65$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.44 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +86.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x812a…6197backed Yes | 33c | 39.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.52 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e02…3920backed No | 68c | 39.51$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63f9…f085backed No | 73c | 38.1$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.81 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 65cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on February 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on February 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C or higher on February 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 7°C on February 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on February 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on February 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.