MLB · resolved market
Rays vs. Royals
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3964006d575230438e6fb1ad9b9c950e26f5e73a431d35a6786e0a2c09672508
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Raysof Rays, Royals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $69,190
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $77,535
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,190 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Royals | 22c | 13,132$2,874 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,874.44 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Rays | 78c | 12,327$9,615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,711.94 | 867 | 51.8%449 W · 418 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15e0…8d86backed Royals | 46c | 5,722$2,629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,628.98 | 111 | 53.2%59 W · 52 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Royals | 45c | 5,213$2,346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,345.72 | 1,328 | 51.4%682 W · 646 L | +25.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe38…1f16backed Rays | 55c | 4,380$2,409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,971 | 47 | 76.6%36 W · 11 L | +8.2wins | +0.17per pick | 59cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Rays | 55c | 4,186$2,293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,893.09 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1d…c4c8backed Royals | 10c | 4,028$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cbe…12bcbacked Royals | 46c | 2,110$969 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$969.48 | 1,132 | 48.9%553 W · 579 L | -16.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Royals | 10c | 2,109$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.23 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ec…e987backed Rays | 54c | 2,072$1,126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$945.52 | 613 | 46.3%284 W · 329 L | +7.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9708…925bbacked Royals | 45c | 2,034$915 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$915.1 | 166 | 43.4%72 W · 94 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Rays | 55c | 2,000$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900 | 692 | 49%339 W · 353 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa5…a0d7backed Royals | 46c | 1,935$890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$890.1 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1b0…6eaebacked Rays | 55c | 1,785$982 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$803.25 | 328 | 52.4%172 W · 156 L | -14.3wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Rays | 54c | 1,387$749 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$637.94 | 418 | 50%209 W · 209 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Royals | 15c | 1,336$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.99 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcacf…35ffbacked Royals | 2c | 1,300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 505 | 3.8%19 W · 486 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f4…0566backed Royals | 13c | 1,130$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.01 | 549 | 41%225 W · 324 L | -15.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Royals | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 932 | 40.5%377 W · 555 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8efa…7b51backed Rays | 54c | 996$538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.16 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +35%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4670…05b0backed Rays | 54c | 938$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.48 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3c…ffc7backed Rays | 55c | 909.09$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.09 | 885 | 49.7%440 W · 445 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe895…c3dabacked Rays | 50c | 801.66$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.83 | 452 | 48.2%218 W · 234 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x309f…9282backed Royals | 50c | 801.66$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.83 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Royals | 36c | 714.8$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.82 | 85 | 30.6%26 W · 59 L | -6.6wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3745…cf3bbacked Royals | 45c | 591.88$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.35 | 380 | 47.6%181 W · 199 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa139…aa45backed Royals | 4c | 472.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c4a…15c7backed Rays | 53c | 458.7$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.74 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6407…7d12backed Rays | 55c | 454.55$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.55 | 182 | 47.8%87 W · 95 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2c…a1c2backed Rays | 54c | 370.37$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.37 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x659c…8dfcbacked Royals | 46c | 298.75$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.85 | 57 | 64.9%37 W · 20 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0d…8bcabacked Rays | 55c | 235.82$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.12 | 193 | 48.7%94 W · 99 L | +15.6wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +16%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed Rays | 54c | 220$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.2 | 1,483 | 50.2%745 W · 738 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5482…b6eebacked Royals | 5c | 214$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 876 | 2.9%25 W · 851 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa264…e26abacked Royals | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 100 | 41%41 W · 59 L | -9.8wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Rays | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 3,291 | 46.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L | +20.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Royals | 46c | 199.95$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.98 | 2,261 | 45.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6edc…18cebacked Rays | 55c | 182.48$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.48 | 313 | 56.2%176 W · 137 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2728…4f96backed Rays | 56c | 178.88$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.88 | 534 | 48.9%261 W · 273 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3585…1cd9backed Rays | 56c | 144.07$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.07 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf235…366dbacked Royals | 46c | 125.37$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.67 | 1,078 | 46.3%499 W · 579 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Royals | 17c | 123.52$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Royals | 44c | 116.97$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.87 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Rays | 54c | 116$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.36 | 519 | 55.3%287 W · 232 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Rays | 54c | 111$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.06 | 242 | 50.8%123 W · 119 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb03…5ae4backed Rays | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 195 | 66.2%129 W · 66 L | +11.0wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Rays | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…590dbacked Rays | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 666 | 45.5%303 W · 363 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac46…ca4abacked Royals | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Rays | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 1,203 | 48.5%584 W · 619 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05a4…1e85backed Rays | 72c | 89.25$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.26 | 806 | 80%645 W · 161 L | +173.6wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Rays | 55c | 69.17$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.13 | 525 | 42.5%223 W · 302 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf391…73c3backed Rays | 55c | 55.55$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 295 | 52.2%154 W · 141 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f33…c1febacked Rays | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Royals | 45c | 52.25$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.51 | 1,402 | 48.8%684 W · 718 L | -11.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cc…a23abacked Royals | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 504 | 47.2%238 W · 266 L | +29.6wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed Royals | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | -5.3wins | -0.16per pick | 27cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Rays | 53c | 49.98$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 1,360 | 44.3%602 W · 758 L | +45.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Royals | 25c | 49.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb597…2949backed Royals | 45c | 48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Rays | 55c | 47.25$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.26 | 201 | 38.8%78 W · 123 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Royals | 46c | 46.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.61 | 1,530 | 50.5%772 W · 758 L | +20.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2272…2e9cbacked Royals | 45c | 43.22$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 662 | 50.2%332 W · 330 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5874…a9d7backed Rays | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 249 | 53%132 W · 117 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2f9…02e3backed Royals | 46c | 29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +3.7wins | +0.25per pick | 49cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbf62…227dbacked Royals | 47c | 28.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 188 | 50%94 W · 94 L | +12.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +16%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83d6…3596backed Rays | 55c | 26.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…1f3fbacked Royals | 46c | 26.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec89…3286backed Royals | 47c | 25.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 142 | 57%81 W · 61 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…5176backed Royals | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 435 | 42.1%183 W · 252 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Royals | 44c | 23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 1,137 | 46.3%526 W · 611 L | +36.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x335a…21b9backed Rays | 55c | 22.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.