Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 5°C on February 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3988c60ec1cfac3309ed094f7b6e98b6addc5d6f7678b5d9a0c13b1d94343c04
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,989
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,327
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,989 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked No | 12c | 1,158$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.7 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 42c | 870.66$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.22 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 8c | 771.49$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.06 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab0f…ee84backed No | 7c | 735.25$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.47 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 3c | 566.07$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 172 | 43.6%75 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2742…1f7abacked No | 7c | 276.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +17.5wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb10f…ae45backed Yes | 70c | 182.1$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.7 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 75cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6e…cfe9backed Yes | 66c | 142.15$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.47 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ec4…e2b6backed No | 11c | 136.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6405…7d19backed No | 31c | 99.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 84 | 38.1%32 W · 52 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 35c | 91.82$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.49 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 29c | 84.46$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.97 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 54c | 78.31$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.09 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 79c | 72.73$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.98 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 53c | 72.65$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.67 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcff…ab9bbacked Yes | 59c | 55.68$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -33%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 37c | 53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.39 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 35c | 51.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.48 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0032…e886backed Yes | 32c | 49.96$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.08 | 135 | 37.8%51 W · 84 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd637…7617backed Yes | 44c | 43.51$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.36 | 135 | 33.3%45 W · 90 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ada…5130backed No | 43c | 41.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x632f…14aabacked Yes | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…1af7backed No | 62c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 201 | 46.3%93 W · 108 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b22…8945backed No | 66c | 37.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 253 | 41.5%105 W · 148 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed No | 33c | 34.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 45c | 33.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.54 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…06bcbacked Yes | 74c | 33.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 91 | 35.2%32 W · 59 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84a4…21c4backed No | 52c | 32.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.20per pick | 66cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 67c | 32.05$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 55c | 29.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb83f…6469backed No | 56c | 28.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 57c | 28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe63…2de4backed Yes | 42c | 26.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.14 | 115 | 46.1%53 W · 62 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa22…2303backed Yes | 57c | 25.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.81 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8116…b2a8backed Yes | 51c | 24.89$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 121 | 52.1%63 W · 58 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0967…0c60backed No | 51c | 23.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 188 | 60.1%113 W · 75 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66e9…5f79backed Yes | 49c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23a1…392ebacked No | 56c | 21.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x520b…100abacked No | 59c | 21.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 85 | 65.9%56 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc0…b5f2backed No | 51c | 20.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 133 | 60.9%81 W · 52 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7cd…043fbacked Yes | 71c | 19.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a31…6223backed No | 65c | 18.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe23b…8d60backed No | 65c | 16.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 77c | 13.28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.11 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 5°C on February 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C or higher on February 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 2°C or below on February 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 3°C on February 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 4°C on February 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 6°C on February 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 7°C on February 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 8°C on February 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C on February 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.