Tennis · resolved market
Wuhan Tennis Open: Katerina Siniakova vs Jessica Pegula
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x39ab59043b38c2655382f66d698b73f78053acc0fdccbf0903a977c6d31baf7a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pegulaof Siniakova, Pegula
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,465
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,333
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,465 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcc30…c8a5backed Pegula | 71c | 10,164$7,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,964.35 | 189 | 33.9%64 W · 125 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked Siniakova | 50c | 9,544$4,753 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,753 | 170 | 46.5%79 W · 91 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Siniakova | 29c | 7,106$2,076 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,075.71 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x283d…0dadbacked Pegula | 46c | 4,307$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,306.7 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.23per pick | 59cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Siniakova | 30c | 3,594$1,076 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,075.78 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f5…e4c2backed Pegula | 52c | 3,065$1,594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,470.99 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60cc…f0dfbacked Pegula | 70c | 2,930$2,038 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$891.54 | 145 | 49%71 W · 74 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Siniakova | 30c | 2,787$841 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$841.04 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Siniakova | 43c | 2,191$953 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$953.05 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Siniakova | 36c | 1,980$709 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$709.13 | 1,090 | 35.9%391 W · 699 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde91…f20abacked Siniakova | 45c | 1,842$822 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$822.42 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | -5.7wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Siniakova | 29c | 1,675$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.8 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Siniakova | 34c | 1,253$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.12 | 296 | 34.1%101 W · 195 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d0…5c32backed Siniakova | 32c | 1,105$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.9 | 226 | 29.2%66 W · 160 L | +7.1wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Pegula | 33c | 900$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600.9 | 819 | 38.9%319 W · 500 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…f76ebacked Pegula | 52c | 800$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384 | 1,446 | 48.8%706 W · 740 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8de5…e957backed Pegula | 67c | 691.04$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.04 | 94 | 52.1%49 W · 45 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Siniakova | 48c | 598.2$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.56 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8520…2a3cbacked Pegula | 67c | 597.74$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.19 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.29per pick | 49cpaid | +64.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Siniakova | 33c | 597.74$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.19 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7879…4345backed Pegula | 66c | 513.28$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.52 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf341…d026backed Pegula | 66c | 500$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +133.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5c…48f9backed Pegula | 39c | 460$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.7 | 154 | 47.4%73 W · 81 L | +14.1wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdc80…e7bebacked Pegula | 61c | 329.6$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.6 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9a…4e25backed Pegula | 68c | 300$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Siniakova | 59c | 248.74$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.5 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecba…5fb4backed Pegula | 34c | 200$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133 | 114 | 57.9%66 W · 48 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Siniakova | 47c | 196.01$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.61 | 267 | 46.1%123 W · 144 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7753…73cebacked Pegula | 67c | 174.25$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.5 | 236 | 70.8%167 W · 69 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Pegula | 60c | 167.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.21 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd9…f0d5backed Pegula | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 177 | 67.2%119 W · 58 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf10f…004dbacked Pegula | 70c | 143.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.19 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f19…aec2backed Pegula | 61c | 122.71$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.27 | 58 | 69%40 W · 18 L | +5.8wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Pegula | 68c | 122.06$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.06 | 383 | 56.9%218 W · 165 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…ead9backed Pegula | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 606 | 41.6%252 W · 354 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f01…4ca2backed Pegula | 71c | 78.78$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.22 | 109 | 56.9%62 W · 47 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…06c9backed Pegula | 51c | 78.61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.61 | 260 | 45%117 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3149…9762backed Pegula | 67c | 65.67$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 52 | 65.4%34 W · 18 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Siniakova | 32c | 63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Pegula | 49c | 58.13$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.8 | 439 | 48.5%213 W · 226 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Siniakova | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 629 | 52.1%328 W · 301 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe827…f98fbacked Pegula | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b32…8166backed Pegula | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ee…8067backed Pegula | 67c | 32.84$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.84 | 499 | 55.1%275 W · 224 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x963a…fc4cbacked Pegula | 69c | 29.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.13 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2cb…ac5abacked Pegula | 57c | 26.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x31df…10cabacked Pegula | 68c | 15.03$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.