Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum reach $1,700 June 29-July 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x39be2bc386187da6e2132b89644102ea11d7f6aa56aa4c8393e95472e6dee4a4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,932
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,227
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,932 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x252d…c456backed Yes | 32c | 7,537$2,439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,097.83 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb971…e7aebacked No | 51c | 3,080$1,570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,570 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefda…a176backed No | 78c | 2,565$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…4524backed Yes | 24c | 2,037$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,538.96 | 162 | 53.7%87 W · 75 L | +13.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cf…b3ecbacked No | 69c | 1,891$1,304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,304.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdabd…6adabacked Yes | 24c | 1,773$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,352.16 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6dc…246ebacked No | 60c | 1,699$1,018 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,018.31 | 137 | 70.1%96 W · 41 L | +9.4wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d3…c08abacked No | 80c | 1,250$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…6feabacked No | 73c | 1,200$878 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$878 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d7…0dfcbacked Yes | 53c | 1,065$564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.55 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 31c | 654.8$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.35 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 13c | 480$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.4 | 212 | 6.6%14 W · 198 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b2a…a1ccbacked Yes | 50c | 436$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1349…f4d8backed Yes | 30c | 403.53$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.61 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x571a…1b17backed No | 72c | 400$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00e7…12f5backed No | 75c | 388$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x874e…f693backed Yes | 35c | 374$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72a0…c059backed Yes | 30c | 317.99$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.36 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | +14.8wins | +0.21per pick | 36cpaid | +113.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6d40…335ebacked No | 72c | 273.04$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.87 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -5.1wins | -0.30per pick | 59cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 4c | 256.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd859…38c5backed Yes | 27c | 203.93$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.72 | 143 | 7.7%11 W · 132 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf69b…0a45backed Yes | 40c | 175.47$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.3 | 99 | 27.3%27 W · 72 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba15…7579backed No | 69c | 171.28$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.98 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad99…dbabbacked Yes | 31c | 166.65$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2c6…3947backed Yes | 62c | 158.67$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.88 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -5.2wins | -0.20per pick | 58cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd801…b39bbacked Yes | 30c | 73.61$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.61 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 29c | 70.05$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.51 | 281 | 13.2%37 W · 244 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd5…aab9backed No | 50c | 70$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57cb…bbb3backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…ceb3backed No | 73c | 46.53$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.97 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd0…a85bbacked No | 69c | 40.2$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.74 | 113 | 28.3%32 W · 81 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x047f…f959backed No | 68c | 36.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ca…6a8bbacked Yes | 30c | 33.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +235%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe76b…ad7fbacked Yes | 63c | 30.61$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5839…2fc4backed No | 58c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5941…6a0ebacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…47c0backed No | 73c | 20.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14d5…8ba8backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…357fbacked No | 67c | 19.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59c9…567fbacked No | 73c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe947…b01fbacked No | 75c | 14.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum reach $1,700 June 29-July 5?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 June 29-July 5?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 June 29-July 5?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 June 29-July 5?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 June 29-July 5?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 June 29-July 5?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $1,800 June 29-July 5?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $1,900 June 29-July 5?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,000 June 29-July 5?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,300 June 29-July 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.