Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 June 29-July 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4e377448dac32be2dd1cf8bd44c72d4dbfbaa82d85a77451a1391dc7dc221df7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $70,743
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $62,517
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,743 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4176…a875backed Yes | 19c | 15,625$3,027 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,026.77 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34af…3bbfbacked Yes | 1c | 8,823$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x252d…c456backed No | 49c | 4,249$2,076 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,172.59 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe30e…057cbacked Yes | 21c | 2,633$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544.51 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58b3…653cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -85.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 7c | 1,904$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.54 | 281 | 13.2%37 W · 244 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf69b…0a45backed Yes | 8c | 1,771$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.25 | 99 | 27.3%27 W · 72 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 40c | 1,053$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 136 | 24.3%33 W · 103 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c5a…df23backed Yes | 50c | 1,040$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc250…8d6ebacked No | 76c | 705.68$536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.93 | 59 | 64.4%38 W · 21 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 73cpaid | -12%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb5…d83abacked Yes | 55c | 515$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd895…ad02backed Yes | 2c | 466.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00e7…12f5backed No | 52c | 436$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.66 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad99…dbabbacked Yes | 12c | 423.83$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8cf…8d9ebacked Yes | 47c | 423.2$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…6feabacked Yes | 40c | 416.97$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.64 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d7…0dfcbacked No | 52c | 326$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.59 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 27c | 274.04$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.46 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76ec…d630backed Yes | 47c | 205$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.34 | 72 | 9.7%7 W · 65 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -76%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefca…3650backed No | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 22 | 81.8%18 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.14per pick | 68cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x571a…1b17backed No | 52c | 199.99$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.38 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe964…29f8backed No | 57c | 157.86$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.86 | 11 | 100%11 W · 0 L | +5.0wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xba15…7579backed No | 79c | 150$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x472e…fd3cbacked Yes | 32c | 127$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4291…747fbacked No | 59c | 117.54$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.19 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +75.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7332…5a29backed Yes | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x542e…5352backed No | 45c | 97$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62bd…69dbbacked Yes | 30c | 84$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x874e…f693backed Yes | 33c | 73$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.93 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd5…aab9backed No | 50c | 70$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x306e…6301backed Yes | 16c | 63.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d1…aed9backed Yes | 48c | 52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd805…52c2backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c7…bf33backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1349…f4d8backed Yes | 40c | 39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…d0f8backed No | 62c | 36.05$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.7 | 38 | 76.3%29 W · 9 L | +7.3wins | +0.19per pick | 57cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x202b…5a7dbacked No | 69c | 35.97$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 45c | 34.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 131 | 17.6%23 W · 108 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…344dbacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 42c | 24.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.98 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b49…9bdcbacked No | 66c | 20.36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 June 29-July 5?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 June 29-July 5?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 June 29-July 5?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 June 29-July 5?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 June 29-July 5?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $1,700 June 29-July 5?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $1,800 June 29-July 5?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $1,900 June 29-July 5?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,000 June 29-July 5?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,300 June 29-July 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.