Us Politics · resolved market
Will 150-174 Republicans vote in favor of government funding bill?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x39c9d0b90d434bc5d8636921b41c5d7736037999fa3b5039098962cc6321a381
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,345
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,835
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,345 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x133b…2f22backed No | 18c | 15,371$2,729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,729.38 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +6.9wins | +0.17per pick | 31cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Yes | 56c | 2,431$1,362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,068.86 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed No | 11c | 661$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.63 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 5c | 600$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 11c | 492$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.87 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c60…67c1backed Yes | 74c | 450$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.4 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed Yes | 22c | 404$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.75 | 118 | 48.3%57 W · 61 L | +13.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 10c | 160$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 336 | 27.4%92 W · 244 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 39c | 127.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.76 | 286 | 36.7%105 W · 181 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc54f…dce8backed Yes | 24c | 127$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.52 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 18c | 94$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.88 | 303 | 19.1%58 W · 245 L | -20.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7960…f8a8backed No | 75c | 82.08$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.56 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd170…ef28backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -50%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…0198backed Yes | 25c | 70$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 159 | 24.5%39 W · 120 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 47c | 65.18$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.96 | 365 | 27.1%99 W · 266 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0054…7f85backed No | 79c | 64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.3 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d4…f46abacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +55%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6df0…36dbbacked No | 75c | 47.22$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc37a…8eafbacked Yes | 23c | 45.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08cf…818ebacked No | 77c | 40.63$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f0…daecbacked No | 77c | 23.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb13…9aaebacked No | 77c | 13.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 150-174 Republicans vote in favor of government funding bill?this page
- Will 10-24 Republicans vote in favor of government funding bill?No won
- Will 100-149 Republicans vote in favor of government funding bill?No won
- Will 175-199 Republicans vote in favor of government funding bill?No won
- Will 200-209 Republicans vote in favor of government funding bill?No won
- Will 210 or more Republicans vote in favor of government funding bill?No won
- Will 25-49 Republicans vote in favor of government funding bill?No won
- Will 50-99 Republicans vote in favor of government funding bill?No won
- Will less than 10 Republicans vote in favor of government funding bill?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.