Valorant · resolved market
Map Handicap: TL (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x39ea2405f2d397ecc221cb0d779ca498d6c7c828b35445dc0632ea96b6d3ac2f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Natus Vincereof Team Liquid, Natus Vincere
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,248
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,177
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,248 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Valorant | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8e8c…65ddbacked Natus Vincere | 61c | 2,341$1,428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$912.97 | 158 | 50%79 W · 79 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…f282backed Natus Vincere | 58c | 1,490$864 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$625.62 | 169 | 52.1%88 W · 81 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74a8…df59backed Team Liquid | 42c | 1,438$604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$603.85 | 68 | 47.1%32 W · 36 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1c…2a3ebacked Team Liquid | 39c | 1,113$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.21 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | -5.2wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x48b8…4b69backed Natus Vincere | 61c | 708.19$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.5 | 112 | 55.4%62 W · 50 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8da1…339ebacked Team Liquid | 43c | 668.99$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.81 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Team Liquid | 34c | 600.76$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.26 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4627…7c23backed Team Liquid | 39c | 591.63$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.73 | 229 | 55%126 W · 103 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Natus Vincere | 57c | 500$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215 | 610 | 35.9%219 W · 391 L | -17.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fbf…4605backed Team Liquid | 39c | 328.54$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.13 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -6.6wins | -0.22per pick | 49cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xbf04…ad65backed Team Liquid | 40c | 225$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 285 | 41.1%117 W · 168 L | -26.4wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Natus Vincere | 60c | 184.14$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.4 | 163 | 45.4%74 W · 89 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Team Liquid | 39c | 100.73$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 321 | 41.7%134 W · 187 L | -16.1wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaadb…85f9backed Team Liquid | 39c | 98.81$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.54 | 428 | 40%171 W · 257 L | -22.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd037…5ea2backed Team Liquid | 43c | 76.43$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.84 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…604ebacked Team Liquid | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 339 | 47.8%162 W · 177 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed Natus Vincere | 41c | 42.54$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.1 | 267 | 30.7%82 W · 185 L | -13.9wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb3d…a77bbacked Team Liquid | 34c | 40.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86e6…e722backed Natus Vincere | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 87 | 57.5%50 W · 37 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map Handicap: TL (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5)this page
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
- Valorant: Natus Vincere vs Team Liquid (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group AlphaTeam Liquid won
- Valorant: Natus Vincere vs Team Liquid - Map 1 WinnerTeam Liquid won
- Valorant: Natus Vincere vs Team Liquid - Map 2 WinnerNatus Vincere won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.