Champions League · resolved market
Will Al Hilal beat Real Madrid?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3a1841d9bc27d7542c4fb4ecccf44fe07149ae3203b11be3979a627379f49897
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $107,527
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $109,600
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $107,527 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Yes | 14c | 16,512$2,360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,359.68 | 239 | 42.7%102 W · 137 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24a1…d723backed Yes | 12c | 12,003$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 30cpaid | +82.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc58d…9373backed Yes | 11c | 11,189$1,202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,202.35 | 125 | 36.8%46 W · 79 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Yes | 13c | 10,000$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300 | 74 | 51.4%38 W · 36 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94a1…ec2fbacked Yes | 10c | 9,841$984 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$984.07 | 91 | 59.3%54 W · 37 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 10c | 7,605$772 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$772.45 | 398 | 42.2%168 W · 230 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…8f5dbacked Yes | 10c | 3,395$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.94 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed Yes | 10c | 2,408$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.81 | 380 | 48.7%185 W · 195 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Yes | 11c | 1,320$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.83 | 368 | 51.1%188 W · 180 L | +15.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 10c | 1,200$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.65 | 219 | 38.4%84 W · 135 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c46…be29backed Yes | 12c | 1,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 131 | 39.7%52 W · 79 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 291 | 38.1%111 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdc…3ad2backed Yes | 10c | 980$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd82c…acb0backed Yes | 20c | 920$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc47c…a661backed Yes | 22c | 909.09$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed No | 79c | 761.95$605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.71 | 187 | 58.8%110 W · 77 L | +18.7wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…c87cbacked Yes | 6c | 615.02$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.05 | 87 | 20.7%18 W · 69 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed Yes | 12c | 590$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.8 | 194 | 53.6%104 W · 90 L | +12.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 4c | 506$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.43 | 291 | 42.3%123 W · 168 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed Yes | 22c | 477.78$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.06 | 249 | 63.1%157 W · 92 L | +45.5wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +63.6%equal weight | 68+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed No | 79c | 444$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.24 | 189 | 50.3%95 W · 94 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…4c40backed Yes | 13c | 310.86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.31 | 128 | 48.4%62 W · 66 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5270…4c8bbacked Yes | 12c | 259.37$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.12 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd386…1887backed Yes | 17c | 245$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.47 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2728…4f96backed Yes | 18c | 226.49$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab3e…6939backed Yes | 9c | 215.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab56…f98fbacked Yes | 17c | 176.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Yes | 16c | 176.36$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.92 | 307 | 54.1%166 W · 141 L | +11.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e7c…eacdbacked Yes | 20c | 170$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +92.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8be2…8b8abacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 21c | 96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 389 | 35.2%137 W · 252 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a5…9445backed Yes | 14c | 79.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Al Hilal beat Real Madrid?this page
- Will Real Madrid beat Al Hilal?No won
- Will Real Madrid vs. Al Hilal end in a draw?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.